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Sparks could fly in Senate contest

By ERNEST HOOPER
Published October 21, 2005

Of all the 2006 election campaigns in Hillsborough County, the most fascinating race may take place right here in our own back yard.

The bid for the state Senate seat being vacated by Tom Lee is shaping up to be a Republican battle royale between former State Rep. Sandra Murman, former Hillsborough school superintendent Earl Lennard and longtime Plant City businessman Ray Young.

Democrat Stephen Gorham also is in the race, but unless President Bush's dismal midterm approval rating proves to have a far-reaching impact, the seat is likely to remain in the hands of Republicans.

The question is: whose hands?

For eight years, Murman represented District 57, a sprawling area that encompasses Davis Islands in Tampa and stretches east all the way to parts of Valrico.

She can boast of understanding the political mechanizations of Tallahassee as well as doing a credible job of addressing constituent interests. She started her campaign early in 2004 and has amassed more than $250,000 in contributions.

To defeat Lennard, she could tag him with every problem within the school district. Is it fair? All's fair in politics.

I could envision Murman putting the blame for the district's overcrowding crisis at the feet of Lennard, and suggesting that the problem will only get worse if Lennard goes to Tallahassee.

Murman also can label Young as a political novice who will get eaten alive by the Tallahassee piranhas.

That sword can cut both ways, however. Young may easily counter by suggesting Murman is too much of an insider. Although she has raised a considerable amount of money, at least a portion of it has come from lobbyists and special interest groups.

Murman also will have to defend her residential status. Although her state House district included Brandon, her primary residence has been on Davis Islands. She now maintains two homes, one in Tampa and one in Brandon, and has connections with a number of local chambers and business owners.

But don't be surprised if Lennard and Young characterize themselves as true area residents and Murman as some woman from Tampa.

A large part of Lennard's success or failure will rely upon on voters' perception of the school district. After all, he ran the district, the nation's ninth largest, for nine years. If parents and educators are pleased with the education their children are receiving, it gives Lennard a strong base.

If the overcrowding issue grows in prominence, Lennard may be hurt. Critics are already suggesting that the school district saw this problem coming and didn't do enough advance work. Lennard could argue the school district was in good shape until the class-size amendment was passed in 2002.

He also will argue that while he has never held an elected office, he knows the lay of the land in the capital as a lobbyist for the school district.

Beyond that, Lennard will trade upon his southeast Hillsborough farming roots and talk of how he graduated from Brandon High and started his teaching career at Ruskin Elementary.

Young may have even deeper roots than Lennard. The Plant City native and resident can trace his heritage back to the 19th century when his father's family moved to the area from Thomasville, Ga.

Although he has a background in agriculture, Young will tout the fact that he ran Ray Young Air Conditioning for 19 years before selling the company.

I also can see Young suggesting he's the most conservative candidate in the race. Murman first ran as a Democrat before switching parties, and Lennard just crossed over to the Republican side this year. Young says he's been a Republican since the early days of the Reagan era.

But Young, whose $100,000 in campaign funds includes a $75,000 personal loan, has to prove he can handle himself in forums against two candidates who are far more accustomed to dealing with the media. He also has to sell voters that his lack of Tallahassee experience is a plus, not a minus.

Two wild cards remain on the periphery. Both former state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd and current Hillsborough County Commissioner Ronda Storms have been mentioned as potential candidates for the state Senate seat.

Last week, Storms said she wasn't running even though poll numbers were favorable. Up until now, Byrd has been quiet. Maybe too quiet.

If either enters, the race goes from intriguing to electric. Even without them, this race has plenty of potential fireworks. The three frontrunners may decide to play nice, but what fun would that be?

That's all I'm saying.

- Ernest Hooper can be reached at 813 226-3406 or Hooper@sptimes.com

[Last modified October 20, 2005, 10:29:05]