NFL

Colts red hot for you? Deal them now

By GREG AUMAN
Published October 25, 2005

This will sound crazy at first, but stay with me for a few paragraphs.

If your fantasy team has benefited from the Indianapolis Colts' 7-0 start, whether you have quarterback Peyton Manning , running back Edgerrin James or the league's best fantasy defense, I have a strategic suggestion: Trade your Colts.

Sure, James is leading the NFL in rushing yards, and Manning is, well, Manning again, the third-best fantasy quarterback over the past month. Not the kind of players you normally think about dumping midseason.

Here's why you should: Indy is two games better than anybody in the AFC, and while the Colts' remaining schedule isn't a cakewalk, I'm confident they'll clinch homefield clear until the AFC Championship Game. Once they lock that up, Tony Dungy has little reason to risk injury to key starters by playing them extensively.

Thing is, the final weeks of the regular season are the playoff games in fantasy football leagues. Consider Manning's Week 17 numbers from last season: 1-of-2 for 6 yards. James? He had one carry for minus-2 yards. Even if those players get you to your league's championship game, they might not be there for you in the week you need them most.

So if you can find a strong quarterback who will have more on the line in the last three weeks, or better still, is facing bad defenses in that stretch, that passer is more likely to help you win your league.

How about Jacksonville's Byron Leftwich ? At 4-2, the Jaguars will be battling for a wild-card spot, and Leftwich gets two of the NFL's three weakest pass defenses - San Francisco and Tennessee - in the final three weeks.

And if you don't mind gambling on his health, Jaguars running back Fred Taylor gets two of the league's four worst run defenses - the 49ers and Texans - in Weeks 15 and 16. Just a hunch, but both have good reason to finish the regular season with strong numbers against bad defenses.

PACKER WOES: With Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport out for the season, somebody has to run for Green Bay, and the best of what's left is Tony Fisher , who has averaged 1.4 yards on 14 carries this season. He'll get carries by default, but unless you're really hurting for a running back, you can do better.

Better, as in Dallas rookie Marion Barber , who had 22 carries for 95 yards in Sunday's loss to Seattle. Even if Julius Jones comes back healthy, Barber should be giving him a break to minimize his risk of re-injuring his ankle.

TAKE YOUR PICK: Denver's Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell - or is it Bell and Anderson? - is easily the league's most productive (and frustrating) running back tandem. Anderson looked to be the guy after getting 43 carries for 213 yards in Weeks 3-4, but then Bell stepped up, getting 241 yards and three touchdowns in Weeks 5-6.

I was offered Anderson in a trade last week but figured he was relegated to backup status, and of course, Anderson got 24 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown Sunday. They're both among the league's top 15 backs over the past month, so either is a compelling start.

THIS AND THAT: Washington's Clinton Portis had been the league's best player without a touchdown until scoring three times Sunday. That tag now falls to Cleveland's Reuben Droughns , who has 431 yards but no touchdowns in a bad offense, and Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez , a colossal disappointment. ... Steelers rookie Heath Miller has four touchdowns, tying him for the NFL lead among tight ends. Only two players have caught more scores in the past month: One is Indy's Marvin Harrison , and the other might be the league's biggest statistical anomaly. Washington fullback Mike Sellers has five catches this season, but four are touchdowns. He entered 2005 with six touchdown receptions in five seasons, but has scored more fantasy points this year than Taylor or Baltimore's Jamal Lewis .

--Times staff writer Greg Auman writes a weekly fantasy football column. Have a lineup question or a comment? E-mail him at auman@sptimes

[Last modified October 25, 2005, 03:00:29]