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Does GOP stronghold face a fall?

Democrats predict GOP struggles will open the door in the mostly Republican 9th District.

By NICOLE JOHNSON
Published October 30, 2005

He's got the name. He's got the connections. And he's sure got the money.

Still, a few Democrats in the 9th Congressional District think other things will speak louder than the lofty resume, impressive campaign treasury and family connections of state Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Palm Harbor.

The war in Iraq. Hurricane Katrina. Rising gas prices.

"If the Democratic candidates in that district can make that a referendum on the state of affairs in the Republican Party a year from now, then it becomes a competition," said Bob Buckhorn, a Democratic Party activist, former Tampa City Council member and Bay News 9 political analyst. "If not, they lose."

At stake is the seat now held by Bilirakis' father, U.S. Rep. Mike Bilirakis, R-Tarpon Springs, who has said he will retire in 2006.

Political analysts such as Buckhorn say ethics scandals like the indictment of former House Majority Leader Tom Delay, R-Texas, and FEMA's response to Hurricane Katrina have led to a hostile political climate for Republicans at the national level that could trickle down into places like Florida's mostly Republican 9th District. And that could make it possible for a Democrat to defeat even someone with Gus Bilirakis' name recognition. According to a Gallup poll conducted earlier this month, Americans' overall approval rating for Congress was 29 percent. That's compared to a 50 percent approval rating for Congress in October 2002 and 44 percent in 1998.

But Bilirakis has worked hard to prepare for this campaign.

With more than a year to go before the general election, Bilirakis has raised $741,000 - more than any other congressional candidate running for an open seat anywhere in the country.

His endorsements include Gov. Jeb Bush and Rep. Thomas Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Bilirakis, a seven-year state representative, faces Pinellas chiropractor David Langheier in the GOP primary.

So far, four Democrats have entered the race, including immediate Democratic primary front-runner and former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky.

The other Democrats in the race are Greg Rublee, a former Defense Department employee from Oldsmar; Tampa lawyer Bill Mitchell; and Fred Taylor, a real estate broker and former Veterans Affairs official from New Port Richey.

"The overall message in a district like this is (for a Democrat) to say . . . we're in a different place in 2005 than 2001 between Iraq, the economy and Hurricane Katrina," said Amy Walter, senior editor of the Washington-based Cook Political Report, an online nonpartisan political newsletter. "Things look very different than they did then."

The 9th Congressional District covers much of northern Pinellas, as well as Hillsborough's northern and eastern suburbs, and coastal Pasco communities such as Holiday and New Port Richey.

The district re-elected President Bush by 14 percent in 2004. Still, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by just 141 registered voters in the Pasco part of the district that year.

That, plus the fact that Democrat Betty Castor lost to Republican Mel Martinez by only 1 percentage point in the district during the 2004 Senate race, are why Busansky thinks Democrats can take the district.

"That inspired me," Busansky said of Castor's marginal defeat. "It lets me know there are new people out there who may not have those same allegiances."

After a more than 10-year political hiatus, Busansky, 68, said she'll use her knowledge of the district to win. After two terms as a Hillsborough County commissioner, Busansky made a run for the U.S. House District 11 race in 1996. She was defeated in the primary by Rep. Jim Davis, D-Tampa, who is now running for governor.

The national party has taken notice of Busansky's latest endeavor.

"We're excited about her candidacy," said Adrienne Elrod, spokeswoman for Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "She's a strong candidate."

Busansky, a Tampa resident, said so far Congress has done a poor job dealing with issues such as offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, the treatment of soldiers in Iraq and health care.

"I think we're looking at this culture of incompetence and cronyism," said Busansky, who led the Florida WAGES board's welfare-to-work program. "And I think the American people are discontent, and I think I am typical of that."

Bilirakis said the Republican Party's current ethics scandals won't change his campaign strategy.

"I'm not going to distance myself from these people," he said. "They're great people. They're admirable people, and they've served their constituency well."

And while honing in on so-called Republican failures may be enough for Democrats to catch the wind, it's not going to sail anyone to a victory, Walter said.

If a Democrat is to be successful in the 9th District, "they'll need a balance between representing themselves as having a profile that these Republicans can be comfortable with," Walter said. "But that profile would also have to convey that they're not in the back pocket of any party."

They'll also have to overcome Bilirakis' commanding fundraising lead.

Bilirakis' contributions run the gamut from well-known political action committees to academia and developers beyond district and state lines. Some of the groups gave to his father's 2004 campaign as well.

The majority - $650,000 - of Bilirakis' contributions come from individuals.

Another large portion of Bilirakis' contributions - $20,000 - comes from various health care groups, some of which helped his father get elected in 2004. The American Podiatric Medical Association donated $1,000 to the Bilirakis campaign. In 2004, that same group gave the elder Bilirakis $10,000. The American College of Surgeons gave Gus Bilirakis $1,500 this year and gave his father $6,000 in 2004.

The donations aren't surprising. The elder Bilirakis' most notable accomplishments in Congress include his spending 10 years as chairman of the House Health and Environment Subcommittee.

While Bilirakis doesn't deny his father's connections have helped him raise money, he maintains his is not a legacy campaign.

"Without the experience I've had in the Legislature I would not do this," Bilirakis said about running for Congress. "Having the name opens the door, but I have to prove myself."

Nicole Johnson can be reached at 727 445-4162 or njohnson@sptimes.com

[Last modified October 30, 2005, 01:13:18]