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Democrats gloat over wins, but did anything really change?

By ADAM C. SMITH and WES ALLISON
Published November 10, 2005

Republican political consultant Adam Goodman of Tampa called it "bloody Tuesday."

Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean found proof in Tuesday's election results that "the values and priorities of the Democratic Party are the values and priorities of the American people."

The beating Republicans took in high profile elections from California to Virginia to New Jersey may prove to be more a warning to Republicans than the start of a national trend. Local elections, after all, are first and foremost about local matters.

But Democrats nonetheless head into the 2006 elections buoyed by their success, while Republicans are grappling with a president with sagging poll numbers and a treacherous political landscape.

"I don't care how the Republicans spin it," Goodman said, "it's not good."

In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. John Corzine didn't just win a particularly nasty governor's race, he trounced Republican Doug Forrester by nine percentage points.

In California, the former superstar of a governor, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, saw voters soundly reject all four of the political and election reform ballot initiatives he campaigned for.

And perhaps most striking, Virginians who last year overwhelmingly backed President Bush's re-election handily elected another Democratic governor, Tim Kaine. The president personally campaigned for the Republican, but it appears to have done nothing to help him, and may have hurt.

Wednesday, as Democrats crowed, Republicans responded with practiced indifference. In an e-mail to House Republicans and their aides, Carl Forti, communications director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, pointed out, "Nothing has changed."

Democrats already held the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, Forti noted, and in Virginia the Republicans won the lieutenant governorship, which had been held by a Democrat.

There were some Republicans stars on Tuesday.

In St. Petersburg, Mayor Rick Baker won re-election with 70 percent of the vote, despite challenger Ed Helm trying to cast the nonpartisan race as a choice between a loyal Democrat and conservative incumbent and Bush supporter.

Likewise, heavily Democratic New York overwhelmingly re-elected GOP Mayor Michael Bloomberg, despite challenger Fernando Ferrer trying to make the race a strictly partisan choice.

"People are choosing performance over partisanship," said Goodman, who worked with Baker's campaign and whose clients also include Republican U.S. Senate candidate Katherine Harris.

Displaying leadership may prove more important to candidates in 2006 than partisanship, Goodman said.

In Virginia, analysts said the Republican candidate, Jerry Kilgore, failed to offer either a compelling personal message or political vision, while Democrat Kaine promised to continue the fiscally conservative, socially progressive agenda of his Democrat predecessor, Gov. Mark Warner.

"At the end of the day, people thought keeping things going on the same track was more important than electing a Republican," said Robert Holsworth, director of the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University. "In that way, the natural tilt of the state (favoring Republicans) was overcome."

For all the problems plaguing Republicans nationally, Florida Democrats still face a popular Bush in the Governor's Mansion and a daunting GOP fundraising advantage. What's more, one of the best opportunities for gaining ground in the Legislature - a ballot initiative aimed at making districts more competitive by mandating a less partisan system for drawing district lines - took double hits on Tuesday. Voters rejected similar measures in Ohio and California.

Former Democratic Education Commissioner Betty Castor, a leading advocate for what she calls "independent redistricting," downplayed the comparisons to Florida. The California measure was tied up in Schwarzenegger's political problems, she said, while the idea is much newer to Ohio voters than it is to Floridians.

Florida Democratic chairwoman Karen Thurman predicted the overall results Tuesday would help Florida Democrats raise money, once the legislative session ends.

"When you have an election like you did Tuesday, people will start recognizing that there is a change in this country," Thurman said.

But as Democrats look to the future, Republicans seeking to temper their gloating pointed to the past: In 2001, Republicans lost the governors' races in both New Jersey and Virginia, too, then came back to pick up congressional seats in 2002.

[Last modified November 10, 2005, 01:21:17]