By DAVID ADAMS, Times Latin America Correspondent
Published November 17, 2005
MIAMI - Haiti's long overdue elections may finally be getting a date set.
The country's much-maligned Election Council is expected later today to announce presidential and legislative voting on Dec. 27, more than 18 months late.
At one time rescheduled for this weekend, that plan was abandoned weeks ago amid accusations of political meddling and jailing of candidates on phony charges.
The delay is testing the patience of United Nations officials overseeing the country's transition back to democratic rule. An interim government has ruled since the violent ouster of former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide in February 2004.
United States and French officials are deeply concerned that any more delay could further undermine the credibility of the whole process.
A host of logistical and political concerns continue to bedevil the election, especially so close to Christmas when many voters will be visiting family far from their homes. Although more than 70 percent of eligible voters are registered, many have not received their voter identification cards and are unlikely to do so before election day. Some 40,000 election day workers also need to be trained.
The legitimacy of the election is already under attack following a controversial decision to ban a wealthy American businessman from standing for president, as well as two of the most trusted advisers of the ousted former president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide. A staggering 35 presidential candidates will be on the ballot.
"It's a sham election," said Ira Kurzban, the Miami immigration attorney who was general counsel for Haiti until Aristide was toppled in February 2004.
Registration problems and the jailing of candidates "is all designed to exclude the vast majority of the poor who are supporters of Aristide," he said.
Two Aristide allies, radical priest Gerard Jean-Juste and former prime minister Yvon Neptune, were excluded because of alleged political crimes that landed them in jail.
Dumarsais Simeus, one of America's top black businessmen and the son of Haitian peasants, is also crying foul after his candidacy was ruled out by the Election Council on the grounds that he is a U.S. citizen and has not lived in Haiti for five years prior to the elections.
Simeus, 66, earlier challenged the decision before the Supreme Court and won. But the government refused to accept its ruling, arguing that the Election Council has ultimate authority in electoral matters.
Simeus is challenging the Election Council's decision. "This is definitely not over," his campaign said in a statement Tuesday.
Ironically, the biggest beneficiary could be Aristide's former protege, Rene Preval, who is leading in the polls by a wide margin. Preval succeeded Aristide in 1996 and was the only Haitian president to ever finish a full term in office. In 2000 he handed the reins back to Aristide.
Despite a reclusive campaign with almost no public appearances, Preval astonishingly leads the polls by a comfortable margin. Criticized by many for serving as a meek pawn of Aristide, he remains popular with the poor. Victory for Preval would be a bitter blow for the country's business and political elite, who fought to remove Aristide from power. But it could also spell bad news for Aristide's hopes of a comeback. Though Preval has never spoken out against Aristide, the two are estranged. Preval is running on the ticket of a small and largely unknown party, Open Barriers. Meanwhile, Aristide's Lavalas Family party has split. Party leaders exiled in the United States say Aristide has ordered a boycott of the election.
"There are no conditions for elections, so we are not participating," said Marysse Narcisse, Aristide's former cabinet chief and U.S. spokesperson. "We are not supporting any candidate."
Lavalas Family party leaders in Haiti have put up a slate of candidates, but are trailing badly in the polls. International observers say they are less concerned by the issue of who is running than whether the logistics will be ready on time. "Printing, sorting and distributing the (voter ID) cards is the principle time problem they are having," said former Florida Sen. Bob Graham, who joined a three-day international assessment team that returned from Haiti Sunday.
Few of the 3-million voters have so far received the cards, and many are unlikely to get them in time. In anticipation of this, officials say cardless voters will be allowed to vote on election day by producing the receipt they were issued when they registered.
This could lead to confusion if word does not reach voters, said Graham, who is now a fellow at Harvard's Institute of Politics. But, if nothing else goes wrong, he said, there is a "reasonable chance" the elections could be conducted successfully.
Other observers aren't so sure.
Some question the international community's insistence on hurrying the vote despite a lack of political reconciliation after Aristide's bloody overthrow. U.S. and French officials are anxious that a new government be inaugurated on Feb. 7 as required by the Constitution.
"The international community has pushed forward on an election strategy that is highly combative when there has been no peacemaking among Haitians," said Robert Maguire, a Haiti expert at Trinity College in Washington, D.C.
"The country needs a national dialogue. That is the real underpinning of whether there can be credible elections."
