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Will new chief be savior or fall guy?

Florida Democrats are trailing Republicans in fundraising, but their executive director sees many reasons for optimism.

TALLAHASSEE - Luis Navarro could be the savior of Florida Democrats if things go well in 2006.

But if things go badly, he's positioned to be the party's biggest scapegoat.

Navarro, 42, is the state party's new executive director. His job is to build up the grass roots organization, raise money and maintain harmony in a year when Florida Democrats are once again fighting uphill but appear to have their best shot in years to make gains.

The pressure on Navarro to produce is heightened by his salary of $180,000, plus another $30,000 in perks, which raised eyebrows when he was hired in July.

The party's single statewide officeholder, Sen. Bill Nelson, is heavily favored to win a second term in early polls against Republican Rep. Katherine Harris. Jeb Bush can't run for re-election, and Republicans appear sharply divided over who should succeed him. Two other powerful Cabinet seats are open, meaning no incumbent holds an advantage.

"There's a tremendous sense of opportunity among Democrats in the state," Navarro says. "The atmosphere favors us."

Navarro said several factors could make life miserable for Republicans, starting with growing opposition to the Iraq war that has sharply lowered the popularity of President Bush, the governor's brother.

He also cited the clumsy response to Hurricane Wilma, strong Republican resistance to the voter-approved class size amendment, a fuzzy Republican message on offshore oil drilling and the potential for GOP dissension because of the intense primary struggle for governor between Charlie Crist and Tom Gallagher.

Democrats still trail far behind Republicans in raising money, and the party is in debt even after its best quarter since 2001. Several financial stumbles last year led to a tax lien (now lifted) and a recently paid $40,000 workers' compensation debt.

In addition, the two Democrats running for governor are less well known than the Republicans, and party activists complain that they still lack such basics as an electronic file of voters to contact.

"They've been promising us this database, this voter file, that's been supposed to be coming out any time now for the past few months," said Evalyn Narramore of Pensacola, president of the Escambia County Democratic Women's Club, which sits in a strong Republican area.

Democrats in Florida will take signs of hope wherever they can find them. As Navarro sees it, election results since 1996 show they do better when the ticket is headed by a federal Democrat, such as Bill Clinton, Bob Graham or Nelson.

The party's worst year recently was 2002, when the top Democrat was Bill McBride, a candidate for governor. Nelson will be the party's standard-bearer in 2006.

For the past 15 years, Navarro has worked in Democratic campaigns all over the country, which is part of why he drew that big salary. He holds two jobs, as executive director and head of the coordinated general election get-out-the-vote effort that has been held by another person in past years.

"It goes with the territory," Navarro said of the criticism his high salary drew.

Navarro is no stranger to Florida, either.

He met party chairwoman Karen Thurman in 1992, when he was southeast regional director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Thurman was running for a new seat in Congress that she helped design as a state senator.

Later he worked for two members of Congress, Albert Wynn of Maryland and Vic Fazio of California. From 1999 to 2003, he was political director of the Service Employees International Union, a job that brought him to Florida and many other states.

A year as political director in Kerry's presidential campaign ended in a top-level shakeup in early 2004, and Navarro went to work for the liberal get-out-the-vote group America Coming Together.

Navarro, 42, grew up as a Republican in the Washington suburbs of Montgomery County, Md. Both parents were loyal Democrats.

His father emigrated from Peru in 1958, joined the Army and worked as an accountant for the federal government. His mother, from Logansport, Ind., worked at a junior college and belonged to the nation's largest public employee union.

At dinner, talk turned to politics. Young Luis did not follow the party line.

"Up through high school, I thought of myself as a Republican," he said. "I was sort of my family's version of Alex Keaton."

Keaton was Michael J. Fox's character in the '80s sitcom Family Ties, the conservative son of liberal parents.

All that changed, Navarro said, when Ronald Reagan gave his "states' rights" speech in 1980 in Neshoba County, Miss., where three young civil rights workers were murdered in 1964.

Later, at Reagan's inauguration, he heard supporters talking about the "real Christian" in the White House.

As the party's senior day-to-day operative, Navarro wants a "meaner machine" focused on winning elections. His first personnel move was to hire someone to finish the voter file.

He wants to expand the base of people who make small party donations, boost advertising in Spanish-language media, and educate more Democrats on the nuts and bolts of political organizing.

To that end, Navarro recently spent part of a weekend in Fort Myers with more than 100 women activists, teaching them to raise money, organize campaigns and win elections.

"He came across as honest, hard working - a good Democrat," said Carolyn Helms, president of the Democratic Women's Club of Lee County.

For Florida Democrats, raising money remains difficult. Republicans raise money easily because they are firmly entrenched in power, and Florida exports millions in donations to candidates and groups who come here from elsewhere.

"Everybody from around the country comes to Florida to raise money," Navarro said.

Navarro recently paid a call on Broward, the mother lode of Democratic votes in Florida. With a laptop tucked under his arm, he emphasized the link between technology and politics. Some veteran activists are withholding judgment.

"It's too early," said Diane Glasser, a Democratic national committeewoman from Broward County. "I really don't know what he's about."

Navarro's real introduction to Florida Democratic activists will come two weeks from now, when the party holds a conference at Walt Disney World featuring its 2006 statewide candidates and rising national stars such as Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Former party chairman Bob Poe said Navarro is a hard worker who will focus on electoral fundamentals, such as energizing the base and broadening the appeal to the state's growing Hispanic population.

"We were lucky to get him," Poe said. "I think he saw an opportunity here. Florida's a player, always, in national politics."

Poe said Navarro will have to keep looking over his shoulder, mindful of the Florida Democrats' propensity for infighting.

"If he doesn't end up with a bullet in his back, he'll be all right," Poe said. "There's a desire for unity right now, and I think he's doing to have the benefit of that."

Reporter Steve Bousquet can be reached at bousquet@sptimes.com or 850 224-7263.