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This time, Rays might actually have a plan

By JOHN ROMANO
Published December 6, 2005

By week's end, the Devil Rays could be without a shortstop.

They could have a cleanup hitter heading for the door, and a leadoff hitter carrying his bags. The catcher might be on his way out, and the closer may be heading to a bullpen far, far away.

So, yes, go ahead and say it:

The new owners have barely bought in and already are selling out.

You've seen it before, you know how it works. I wouldn't blame you for thinking the new boss was not so different from the old boss.

Except for one distinction:

This time, it feels different.

This time, it seems as if the Rays are proceeding by design instead of desperation. They don't have to make these deals; they want to make them.

Sure, they're saving money. Of course, they're talking about the future. Absolutely, they're sacrificing a few victories in 2006.

But, for a change, there is a blueprint being followed. A way to stop the perpetual rebuilding by putting the renovations on a timetable.

Gone are the days of surviving one year at a time. Of trying to go from 63 wins to 67. Or from 67 to 70. At some point, the Rays need to take one giant leap instead of continually hopping in place.

That's what this offseason is about. That's what these potential trades are designed to do. To make the Rays competitive in '07 and contenders by '08.

I've been critical in the past of moving too many veterans, but that was when every deal seemed to have more to do with dollars than sense.

This time, saving money is a consideration, but it does not appear to be the only imperative. Instead, it is part of a larger concept. One of several reasons for contemplating the deconstruction of a roster.

NO.1: They are not contenders. And no matter what the Rays do in the next two months, there is not enough available talent to make them contenders.

Go ahead, imagine a payroll of $70-million in 2006. Now tell me whom you would acquire. Sign A.J. Burnett for $11-million a year? Acquire Manny Ramirez with his average annual salary of $20-million? And pick up Mike Piazza and Mark Grudzielanek? That would put the Rays in the $70-million range.

And it wouldn't matter. The Rays would still fall short.

So why worry about whether you win 65 or 75 games in 2006? Either way, you're near the bottom. Julio Lugo, Aubrey Huff and Danys Baez make for a better team in '06, but they do not make the Rays a good team.

The only chance to win in Tampa Bay is with young, low-salaried players dominating the lineup. Yes, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Jorge Cantu and Scott Kazmir are a start. But the Rays need more. They need Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Jason Hammel and Chris Seddon to develop in the next year or two.

And, in the meantime, these trades are designed to bring in even more of those emerging talents.

It's only when the Rays have the majority of their lineup in place that it makes sense to hit the free-agent market and find the two or three missing pieces.

NO.2: They are not talking about moving essential players. Lugo, eventually, will give way to Upton. Joey Gathright is not going to crack an outfield of Crawford, Baldelli and Young.

And though there are no immediate replacements for Huff or Baez, the Rays are working on the theory that first baseman/DH and closers are among the easiest positions to fill.

The market for closers might have gotten more expensive in the past month, but those guys seem to come and go at an amazing rate.

Dan Kolb, for instance, saved 39 games for the Brewers in 2004 before they traded him to Atlanta. He saved 11 for the Braves. Meanwhile, Derrick Turnbow, who did not have a big-league save in his career, stepped in for the Brewers and saved 39. Oakland, too, seems to find a new closer every other year.

The reality is Baez may be more valuable to the Rays as a trade commodity in 2006 than he is as a closer.

NO.3: The moves are part of a grander plan.

Unlike seasons past, when the front office was never sure what ownership's long-range plans were, the Rays are working on a rolling three-year model.

So Andrew Friedman may have the flexibility to spend more money next season, but it will likely impact his budget in 2007-08. Conversely, if he saves money next season, he will have more to spend down the road.

The concept is a radical departure from the past. Chuck LaMar would tend to spend every penny given because he never knew when the money would dry up.

Friedman can take the money saved by dealing Huff, Lugo, Baez or Toby Hall and reinvest it immediately, put it into international scouting or save it for another payroll down the road.

The point is the Rays have to break the cycle. They have to be willing to make bold moves today in order to take a big step forward tomorrow.

[Last modified December 6, 2005, 02:15:34]