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Run to perfection may equal no-win scenario

By JOHN ROMANO
Published December 8, 2005

Almost all is perfect in Tony Dungy's world.

At 50 years old, he is having the best regular season of his NFL career. Perhaps, the best regular season any head coach will ever have.

Perfect today, and perfect yesterday. Give him another four victories and it will be perfect every day. Yes, history may soon be calling his name.

Just one detail remains.

A most imperfect choice.

You may have heard the Colts are 12-0 and three-quarters of the way to the first undefeated regular season in 33 years. Win this week against the Jaguars, and Indianapolis will have clinched its division and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

What could be better, you ask?

Maybe a loss.

Oh, I don't mean that maliciously. I'd love to see Dungy complete a perfect season. I would guess a lot of other people around here would, too.

The problem is, if he keeps winning, Dungy will face a Solomon-like choice. Say the Colts beat the Jags. Say they are 13-0 and wearing division crowns.

What does Dungy do then?

He will have three games remaining, and they will mean absolutely nothing for the 2005 season. Yet, they will mean everything for posterity.

So does he rest Edgerrin James, who is on pace for the third-most carries in a season in NFL history? Does he sit Marvin Harrison, a 33-year-old in his 10th season? Does he send Jim Sorgi on the field in place of Peyton Manning?

For a guy who hasn't lost this season, Dungy could be facing a no-win situation. Sit his starters and he will risk ruining a historic season. Keep his starters in the lineup and he will risk an injury that could potentially keep the Colts from winning the Super Bowl.

So what will he do?

Dungy isn't saying, although he has dropped hints. The season's goal, he said, was to win a Super Bowl. Teams don't get rings for going 16-0 in the regular season, he pointed out, only for winning a Super Bowl.

If you recall Dungy's days with the Buccaneers, you might see another clue. At the end of the 2001 season, with Tampa Bay's playoff position set, Dungy sat a lot of starters in the regular-season finale against Philadelphia.

The Bucs lost 17-13, then lost to the Eagles again the next week in the playoffs. That was Dungy's final game with the Bucs.

Dungy already knows what his players want. They want it all. They want fame and glory. They know most people don't remember the Dolphins went 15-2 and won a Super Bowl in 1973, but most everyone recalls Miami was 17-0 in '72.

Dungy said he will listen to what his players say, but he will not put the matter to a vote. He will listen to only one voice:

"I will ask for some wisdom from the Lord."

That's not a bad place to start. But he might also seek counsel from Denver coach Mike Shanahan. In 1996, the Broncos were 12-1 and clinched homefield advantage with three games remaining.

So they took it easy. Shanahan rested starters. The Broncos seemed to play without much enthusiasm and lost two of their final three.

When the postseason rolled around, the Broncos were upset by a 9-7 Jacksonville team in Denver.

Which is another risk to be weighed. Do you worry about rest or rust? Injuries or momentum? Super memories or a Super Bowl?

My guess is Dungy will lean toward conservative. I just hope he doesn't lean so far that the Colts stumble and fall.

This is a team on an obvious roll. And though injuries are a real possibility (Don't you think the Seahawks are crying about cornerback Andre Dyson going down with a bad ankle while leading 35-0 against the Eagles Monday night?), the chance of upsetting a team's chemistry is just as important.

So why not let Manning stay in if the score is close? Why not give James 15 carries instead of 25? Why not give his players a chance to accomplish something an entire generation of fans has been waiting to see?

Dungy would risk being second-guessed if Manning or Harrison or someone else got hurt, but he'd risk even more by not daring to be special.

Ah, perhaps it won't even matter. Maybe the Colts won't get past Jacksonville - they've split with the Jaguars each of the past two seasons - and Dungy will no longer have to worry about preserving a perfect record.

But if they do win Sunday, Dungy could be the loser.

He could be called a coward for not going for perfection, or he could be a fool for not recognizing a championship is more important than a record.

There will be no easy decision, no simple choice. He could listen to his brain or follow his heart. He could acquiesce or remain strong.

Only one thing is certain:

If the Colts keep winning, Dungy is heading into a perfect storm.

[Last modified December 8, 2005, 00:50:19]