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Vote signals Bolivian left turn

Incoming Bolivian President Evo Morales, 46, wants the country's resources to be used to benefit the poor. He defends Bolivia's coca farmers and is an ally of Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.

By DAVID ADAMS
Published December 20, 2005

MIAMI - He is a leftist high school dropout and son of a tin miner. But none of that stopped Evo Morales, 46, from winning Bolivia's presidential election on Sunday.

And win it he did, garnering 45 to 50 percent of the vote, far exceeding expectations.

The margin of victory avoids one dilemma but poses another. Analysts feared a tight outcome might lead to further political chaos in a country that has seen more than enough instability lately.

Now that the electorate has handed Morales such a stunning victory, it raises the question of how he plans to use his mandate.

Morales has made no secret of what he would like to do: remake one of South America's poorest and most unusual countries. "We have won and now we are going to change this country," he said in his victory speech late Sunday.

His wish list involves a controversial trifecta: legalize coca farming, nationalize the country's natural gas reserves and reform the constitution, giving Indians better representation in Congress.

Despite Bolivia's poverty (many Indians, who make up 60 percent of Bolivia's 9-million population, earn less than $1 a day) the country is rich in natural gas, with some 52-trillion cubic feet.

Bolivia is also home of the coca plant. Famous as the main ingredient in cocaine, the leaves of the coca plant have traditionally been used in indigenous Aymara and Quechua culture for nonnarcotic religious and medicinal purposes.

How Morales deals with these two issues will no doubt define his presidency. A close ally of Fidel Castro and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, Morales has long been associated with a leftward tilt fast gathering momentum in Latin America.

But while his gut might want to follow his like-minded mentors, political and economic reality may lead him to be more pragmatic.

That's mainly because Bolivia has so far failed to unlock the wealth in its natural gas resources. And, for all of his anti-imperialist rhetoric, how much can Morales afford to antagonize Washington?

It's hard to imagine Bolivia's gas being developed without the help of foreign companies that have already invested heavily there, and they are nervously waiting to see which Evo emerges.

Morales has spoken often of nationalizing the oil and gas sector. But that may not mean expropriation. Morales talks of Bolivians getting a fairer share of the country's natural resources, an echo of the past when Spanish colonists mined the country for silver.

More likely is a renegotiation of existing contracts with foreign companies, much as Chavez has done in Venezuela. That would mean higher taxes for those companies and more state control over production.

The companies don't like the idea. Bolivia's Congress already passed a new hydrocarbons law in May, raising taxes by 32 percent. Foreign companies could decide not to invest new money or to take the Bolivian state to court.

Political troubles have already seen oil and gas investment fall from $600-million in 1998 to $60-million in the first six months of this year. Will Morales' friends in the new socialist bloc be able to fill the gap? Chavez, who has become equally unpopular with foreign investors, has found willing new backers in Iran and China. But most analysts say oil and gas production has fallen in Venezuela.

On the drug front, the picture is equally uncertain.

Morales' election may well undermine U.S. efforts to shore up an alliance of Andean countries in the drug war. U.S. policy is contingent on total adherence to coca crop eradication. If any one country wavers, analysts predict a ballooning of coca cultivation at the point of least resistance.

Bolivia's coca farmers say the United States has no business dictating what they do with their crops. Besides defending their indigenous culture, they point out that coca leaf extract has many legitimate uses, from tea to toothpaste. Indians in Bolivia's highlands chew the leaves in wads, like tobacco, to help stave off hunger.

Again, Morales' position is ambiguous. While he defends the farmers, he insists he opposes the cocaine trade.

If Bolivia stops eradicating its coca crop, the country stands to lose $590-million in U.S. aid over the next five years, as well as $150-million in manufacturing exports under a trade deal that expires next year.

Last week, the United States adopted a wait-and-see approach, saying it expects any future Bolivian government to honor previous commitments to fight the production of illegal drugs.

During the campaign, Morales said that he had no intention of cutting off ties with the United States. But there was one condition. Bolivia would no longer accept the usual "relationship of submission."

[Last modified December 20, 2005, 01:51:07]