NFL

Gulf between division title and wild card looms large

By JOANNE KORTH
Published January 1, 2006

This final day of the regular season is chock-full of scenarios and suspense.

Who's in?

Who's out?

The drama is exactly what the league had in mind when it changed the playoff format. But it's a ruse.

Teams scrambling to secure wild-card berths do so hoping for the chance to win the Super Bowl. Truth is, they have no shot. There is no hope for a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. Sorry.

Since the 12-team format went into effect in 1990, 180 playoff teams have sought 30 Super Bowl slots. The 60 teams seeded first or second, those with first-round byes, filled 25. The 60 teams seeded third or fourth, those with first-round home games, filled five.

Even I can do that math.

The 60 teams seeded fifth or sixth have never made it to the Super Bowl. Only two, the Colts in 1995 and Jaguars in 1996, won two games to reach the conference title game.

Seeding is everything.

Part of this is the higher-seeded teams are more talented. That's why they're high seeds. But since the change to eight divisions in 2002, a wild card has had to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl. And that's a tall order for any team, even one among the league's 12 best.

So far, it has never been done.

If the Saints don't get the Bucs' attention today, that should.

Tampa Bay can clinch the NFC South title and a home playoff game with a win today. Playing at home in the first round gives the Bucs a much better chance to reach the Super Bowl than as a wild card. "It's hard to get there, hard to win it," coach Jon Gruden said. "You'd like to have three bye weeks and just be anointed Super Bowl champions. You've got a tough road. I don't care where you go or what you're schedule is. But we understand the implications of the game." The top four seeds - Indianapolis and Denver in the AFC and Seattle and Chicago in the NFC - are a combined 29-2 at home this season. And they'll have a week to rest while the other eight teams play.

Inevitably, a fuss will be made over the teams that earn playoff berths today. Momentum will be on their side when the postseason begins. The percentages will not.

So watch the scoreboard.

Revel in the suspense.

[Last modified January 1, 2006, 00:49:11]