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Future uncertain without Sharon

There is never a good time for a destabilizing event in the Middle East, but the incapacitation of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon from a massive stroke has come at a particularly sensitive moment.

Once widely reviled, Sharon had turned the table on his critics and emerged as a charismatic, popular leader with a pragmatic approach to peace with the Palestinians. His departure from Israeli politics, whether temporary or permanent, is likely to complicate any progress toward a final two-state solution, and it could lead to the election of a far more hawkish Israeli government.

Sharon, once known as Mr. Settlements for the passion with which he defended Israel's claim to the occupied territories, has fashioned a new center in Israel. To the surprise of most regional observers, Sharon abandoned his earlier rigidity, challenging naysayers within his own Likud Party and forging a path toward peace and security that reflects the views of a significant percentage of the Israeli population.

Sharon, who fought in all of Israel's wars, gained international respect last summer when Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip, removing some intransigent settlers by force and working with the Palestinian leadership to make the transition as smooth as possible. When others in his Likud Party refused to follow his lead to keep open the possibility of trading more land to create secure borders, Sharon left Likud and formed the moderate Kadima Party, which has attracted political leaders from both liberal and conservative quarters.

Due to Sharon's personal clout, his new party was expected to win large majorities in the parliamentary elections scheduled for March 28. He was the man most Israelis saw as best able to protect their safety while negotiating the final lines for the Israeli and Palestinian states.

Now the fate of Kadima is uncertain. Without Sharon as its helm, the nascent party is seriously hobbled and could disintegrate. Who instead might emerge as Israel's new prime minister? Among the likely possibilities is Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu, a conservative hard-liner who would dampen hopes for improved relations with Palestinian leaders.

Sharon's change of heart, Yasser Arafat's sudden death, and the election of Mahmoud Abbas as prime minister of the Palestinian Authority were a confluence of events that created a window of opportunity for a more peaceful and secure region. With Sharon's absence from the stage, the world can only hope that this window has not closed.

[Last modified January 6, 2006, 01:04:19]