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Bucs

Mountain is steep, but Bucs can see the top

By GARY SHELTON
Published January 7, 2006

Steep climb up ahead. Jagged rocks, too.

A mountain never looks bigger than when a man stands at the bottom. There are boulders and cliffs, storm clouds and ice patches. Rumor has it, there are Bears. Climbing up looks dangerous; falling down looks deadly.

From here, the mountain looks forbidding enough.

From here, the men guarding it look even worse.

As the Bucs begin their quest toward Super Bowl Extra-Large, be aware of the daunting task in front of them. They are not dominant, and in a lot of areas, they are still young players growing into their helmets. The questions are going to get increasingly more difficult.

And yet, in a conference where no one looks dynamic, they have a shot.

Honestly, they do.

This is not said lightly, because winning a Super Bowl without benefit of a first-round bye is a tall order. To win it, the Bucs would have to beat the Redskins followed by the Bears followed by probably the Seahawks followed by probably the Colts.

There is Clinton Portis and Santana Moss, followed by Brian Urlacher and Alex Brown, followed by Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, followed by Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. There is Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs followed by probable coach of the year Lovie Smith followed by Mike Holmgren followed by Tony Dungy. If the playoff brackets were to go along as drawn up, the Bucs would face 19 Pro Bowlers in four games.

Even with all of that, however, the Bucs have a puncher's chance to make a run. If you were an attorney, you could make quite a case pending, of course, closing arguments.

Exhibit A: Look at the rest of the NFC. Do you see any juggernauts lurking? Me neither. The NFC has been the lesser conference all year. In the past, there have been seasons when teams such as the '85 Bears or the '89 49ers or the '93 Cowboys kicked into the doors of the playoffs, and their competition looked as if it was over its head. This year, that isn't the case.

Exhibit B: The Bucs play a playoff-conducive style of football. Teams built on running and defense generally do not slump.

Oh, I know, I know. The Bucs were No. 1 in the NFL in defense this year, but a lot of times, they didn't feel like the No. 1 defense. Back in 2002, when the Bucs ran through the playoffs and won their championship, the Bucs seemed to smother more, to swarm more. They were as liable to score a touchdown as to allow one.

Still, they are a veteran group, and players such as Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber have measured up to big games before. If the Bucs can control the running game, always their priority, then they should keep the scoreboard under control.

On the other hand, the Bucs' offense is still being spoon-fed by coach Jon Gruden, who faces a weekly battle on how much leash he should hold. Still, the best thing about this offense is that it has played smart, patient football for most of the season.

Every week, it seems, someone sidles up to me before a Bucs game and asks what I think. Lately, I ask one question in return: How many turnovers are they going to have? If the Bucs protect the ball, they will get into the fourth quarter with the game still in question.

That's true in the playoffs, too. If the Bucs can protect the ball, they will win the Washington game, they can win the Bears game and they might win the Seahawks game. After that, we'll see.

Right about now, of course, Gruden is telling his team to take it one game at a time for about the 4-billionth time this week. That's how coaches talk, and that's how teams have to play.

The rest of us, however, have no such shackles. We can take it four games at a time if we want.

Going in, here's how it looks:

Game 1: To this point, the Bucs and Redskins have pretty much had the same season. Both started fast, both slumped in the middle, and when the doubts got large, both finished strong. In the final game, both had their hands full finishing off a weak opponent before scoring a defensive touchdown to put the game away.

There won't be a lot of difference in this game, either. The Bucs have to slow down Portis, and they have to get a decent pass rush on Mark Brunell. If they can do that, it could come down to a single play again. Maybe Mike Alstott bulling across the goal line. Again.

Odds of the Bucs winning? 52 percent.

Game 2: Okay, it's going to be cold, and the turf will be almost as hard as the Bears' defense. That said, the Bears are beatable. Remember, the Bucs were a short missed field goal from overtime the last time the teams played.

True, the Bears have Rex Grossman now, but Grossman still has fewer than 10 career starts. Chicago doesn't figure to score a lot of points, and its opponent shouldn't either.

Still, the chances of this Bucs team going to Chicago and winning in the cold are better than the odds of the '02 team going to Philadelphia and winning in the cold. Does anyone else foresee Matt Bryant lining up for a winning field goal in a swirling wind?

Odds of the Bucs' winning: 39 percent.

Game 3: The trouble with a game against Seattle isn't how far you have to travel. It's how hard it is to keep the Seahawks offense from traveling.

Still, you have to weigh the Seahawks schedule somewhat, too. Six of their victories came in a woeful division with San Francisco, Arizona and St. Louis.

Odds of the Bucs winning: 27 percent.

Game 4: Ah, the Super Bowl. Oh, the Colts. Ew, Detroit.

Hard to question Indianapolis' prowess. Still, if the Bucs can get to a championship game, against their former coach, it would be interesting to see. Even the Rollings Stones would have to cut their naps short, wouldn't they?

Odds of the Bucs winning: 11 percent.

Stay tuned, won't you?

[Last modified January 6, 2006, 17:45:03]