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Western options unclear in Iran issue

VIENNA - After months of fruitless negotiations, European nations set the stage Wednesday for reporting Iran to the powerful U.N. Security Council by the end of the week because of concerns the Islamic country's nuclear program is not "exclusively for peaceful purposes."

Iran remained defiant, warning such action will provoke it into doing exactly what the world wants it to renounce - starting full-scale uranium enrichment, a possible pathway to nuclear weapons.

Positions appeared to be hardening on the eve of an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting after European nations formally submitted a U.S.-backed motion for the IAEA's 35-nation board to refer Iran to the Security Council. The two-day board meeting was to start today.

Tehran's true intentions - and the West's real options - remain murky. Even such basic questions as "Who calls the shots?" are open to debate. One thing is known: Iran has vast amounts of oil and plenty of ways to retaliate, whatever the world decides to do.

A look at some questions surrounding the crisis:

Iran says its nuclear program is purely for generating electricity and that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons.

The United States disputes that, saying it believes Iran aims for atomic weapons. And Iran's Jan. 10 decision to restart small-scale uranium enrichment - and its president's call for Israel to be wiped off the map - have clearly jolted the world.

The International Atomic Energy Agency says a three-year investigation produced no evidence Iran is trying to build atomic arms, but didn't rule that out either. And, U.S. intelligence made public last year suggested Tehran's scientists do have engineering drafts of a nuclear warhead.

If Iran kicked into high gear on uranium enrichment, it could produce nuclear weapons from three to 10 years later, experts estimate.

The board of the IAEA is expected to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council, essentially asking it to take on international oversight of Tehran's nuclear program. Russia and China agreed last week on the need for that - a victory for the United States.

The most powerful members of the U.N. have agreed that the Security Council should wait until March to take up Iran's case. The delay could give Iran time to moderate its position, or agree to let Russia perform nuclear enrichment work on its behalf. Or, it could just mean continued stalemate.

It seems unlikely. China and Russia generally oppose using the council to impose sanctions, and both are trading partners with Iran.

U.S. officials have also said they want to take a gradual approach, and are only seeking a legally binding resolution that could include sanctions as a last resort.

[Last modified February 2, 2006, 02:15:36]