College basketball

FSU has much to gain at Duke

By BRIAN LANDMAN
Published February 4, 2006

For Florida State, it doesn't get more ominous than it will today facing No. 2-ranked Duke in hallowed Cameron Indoor Stadium.

It also doesn't get any more opportune.

Although the Seminoles (13-5, 4-4) have the kind of record that makes you think NCAA Tournament at-large bid, they sorely are in need of a signature win; they don't have one.

Instead, they have a glut of Ws against inferior non-conference opponents, a schedule clearly designed to boost a young team's confidence and drum up interest in a football-crazed town, and a few hard-fought, last-minute losses. That kind of resume makes you think NIT.

"This is a big opportunity for us," ever-improving sophomore guard Jason Rich said. "This could be a win that could definitely, definitely, put us over the hump."

Beating the Blue Devils (20-1, 8-0) anywhere would catch the eyes of the Division I men's basketball committee members as they look to separate teams vying for the 34 at-large spots. But in Durham, it would be stop-the-presses huge, especially for FSU.

It has lost all 14 games against Duke there.

"The position that we're in, we look at this as a unique and special opportunity because Duke has sort of set the standard by which now all other college basketball teams are being judged by," FSU coach Leonard Hamilton said.

An upset would also give the Seminoles a legitimate shot to finish 8-8 in the perennially powerful ACC; they have winnable home games left against Georgia Tech, Virginia and Maryland and legitimate shots on the road against Virginia Tech and Miami.

Since the NCAA field expanded in 1985, only four teams that were .500 or better in the ACC failed to receive an NCAA Tournament at-large bid - Virginia (1992 and 2000), Georgia Tech (1995) and Virginia Tech (2005).

"We did it to ourselves," said the Hokies' Seth Greenberg, the former USF coach. "If we had beaten VMI and Western Michigan, we probably wouldn't have been in that situation. We didn't take care of business. ... If you're 8-8, you can't have any bad losses."

Former Georgia Tech coach Bobby Cremins thought his team (18-12, 8-8) was in back in 1995, but said times have changed for a coach to think .500 in the league, even one as good as the ACC, is a magic number.

"The only way you can count on eight is if you have some quality wins out of conference," he said.

The Seminoles don't, and worse, they played just one highly regarded team outside the ACC: Florida, No. 19 in the Ratings Percentage Index. The next highest? Nebraska at No. 95.

FSU, due to its non-conference lineup of cupcakes (five teams ranked in the bottom 33 of the 334 Division I teams by the RPI), entered the week at No. 94.

"The artificially good record doesn't impress the (selection) committee, generally speaking," said Craig Littlepage, the chairman of that group.

At least FSU doesn't have a bad loss to a lowly ranked team. It also has played well in narrow losses to the Gators in Gainesville, at Boston College and against UNC.

"If you're playing against that level of competition in your conference on a routine basis or if you've chosen to take on that type of competition outside of your conference," Littlepage said generically of highly regarded teams (he can't talk about specific teams at this point), "A.) it's good that you play those people and B.) you have to win some of those games."

Which brings FSU back to Duke and the chance, the best chance, to impress.

The Blue Devils were No. 1 in last week's RPI.

"As a coach, I've been doing this long enough and I've heard all the arguments about how many games you need and the RPI and where you're ranked," Hamilton said. "You get to arguing and discussing it and adding it up and in reality, it doesn't really matter. What you have to do is win as many games as you can. You have to start with the next one."

If that one happens to open eyes, well, that is special.

And opportune.

[Last modified February 4, 2006, 00:32:20]