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Film

Theaters count on bright projections

By STEVE PERSALL
Published March 24, 2006

LAS VEGAS

The orchestrated optimism at the Sho- West convention of theater owners needed a sunnier introductory song.

Movie exhibitors entered the Paris hotel's Les Theatres Des Arts last week seeking reassurance that 2005's box office slump wasn't the beginning of the end of their profession. Their fearless leader, National Association of Theater Owners president John Fithian, apparently didn't notice the Steely Dan ditty playing before his opening remarks:

"It's high time for a walk on the real side,'' the lyrics began, describing a corporation on the brink of ruin: " 'Cause we're goin' out of business. Everything must go.''

Any resemblance to the gloomy scenario Fithian planned to dispel was purely coincidental, but deliciously ironic.

"It has been a bizarre year,'' he told the audience, noting a drop-off in movie attendance, the "radical and extremely misguided experiment'' of Steven Soderbergh's Bubble that attempted a same-day theatrical and home video release strategy exhibitors detest, and what Fithian called "inordinate media attention and industry consternation on the issue of box office.''

Like any good Washington lawyer, Fithian applied his spin, this one based on a cycle.

"Our business is cyclical in nature and we know that,'' he preached to the exhibitor choir. "Yes, we go up and down in the short-term. But what some reporters and analysts missed is the long-term trend of this business. Our long-term trend line is growth positive.''

He has a point, illustrated by charting box office receipts. According to Motion Picture Association of America statistics, U.S. ticket sales mostly headed upward from an average of 985-million per year in the 1970s, to 1.1-billion in the 1980s, 1.3-billion in the 1990s and 1.5-billion in the past five years.

"In other words, every decade, on average, we go up another 200-million or so tickets on a steady growth pattern,'' Fithian said. He did not mention the fact that his graph ends in 2005, on a down trend. "So I'm befuddled by all the media attention after one or two years of down admissions saying: 'It's the death of the theater business.'

"We heard that with videocassettes, we heard that with cable, we heard that with television. We know in the long term our business is just fine.''

Throughout the convention, Fithian and MPAA president Dan Glickman told anyone listening that everything will be okay in 2006.

Along with everyone else, Glickman watched clips from 2005's 19 films grossing at least $100-million, plus a preview of Mission: Impossible III and declared: "Anybody who watches that montage and that trailer and thinks that the theatrical experience is in decline needs to have their heads examined.''

Count me in that group, after writing numerous columns on piracy, the box office slump, episodes of poor theater management, the Bubble release strategy and entertainment distractions such as video iPods and ever more elaborate home theater systems. But Fithian and Glickman made persuasive arguments on the glass-half-full side of the situation. I asked Fithian later how he would have reported on the events of 2005.

"I'm not suggesting it stepped over the line, and I certainly wouldn't step on the First Amendment expression of a free press,'' he said with a wry smile. "But come on. We'd read last summer that it's the 17th weekend in a row that box office has been down. Did you know that several of those weeks (overall) were actually up? But the weekends were down.

Not many of us, aside from pointing out that the late rush improved yearly receipts that were down nearly 10 percent through last summer.

What about all those electronic gadgets blamed for keeping people out of theaters? Fithian used his household as an example of what quality films and solid theater management can do.

"I have two sons, one 19 and one 15,'' he said. "They watch a lot of movies and they have every DVD system in the world; I wish I had all the money back that I've spent on that equipment. They have iPods and laptops and instant messaging. They've got it all.

"When the movies are good they go to the cinema. When they're not, they're playing their iPods. We know there's a lot of competition for their eyeballs and time. We also know that good movies and good theaters will get people out of their houses.''

Fithian and Glickman weren't the only hopeful speakers at ShoWest. Filmmaker M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense, Lady in the Water) was there at the Paris hotel accepting the director of the year award at a closing night banquet, presented as much for his outspoken support of theater exhibition as for his craft.

"Nobody ever got a tattoo from watching a DVD,'' he said, earning the loudest applause of the evening.

But not everyone was cheering such optimism.

Robert Liggett and David Tolfree are business partners just breaking into the theater business. A year ago they purchased an abandoned two-screen theater in St. Clair, Mich., planning to convert it into an eight-screen multiplex. They've been on the sideline watching the game slip away from veteran exhibition players, raising doubt about their investment in a region reeling from automobile factory layoffs.

"We're agonizing a lot about the swirl of changes that seems to be out there,'' Liggett said. "The general attendance malaise, and last year had such a terrible track record of product (coming from studios). You wonder if you've seen it all and done it all, if there's any reason to feel excited like we used to.

"We're sitting right on the cusp. We have a major investment (and) there's no lease to walk out on if we blow it,'' he said. "This convention is giving me some hope that there's good product out there this year, but we'll be closed all year for renovations. We're really gambling on next year.''

Even in Las Vegas that may be a sucker bet.

Steve Persall can be reached at (727) 893-8365 or persall@sptimes.com.

[Last modified March 24, 2006, 06:47:31]