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Winning Back Bubba

By BILL ADAIR
Published March 26, 2006

FOXES IN THE HENHOUSE:

How the Republicans Stole the South

and the Heartland and What the Democrats

Must Do to Run 'Em Out

By Steve Jarding and Dave "Mudcat" Saunders

Touchstone, $24, 307 pp

Reviewed by BILL ADAIR

On a chilly afternoon two years ago, President Bush strolled out of the White House to greet Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick and several other NASCAR drivers. It was a perfect photo opportunity: the president, the drivers and their brightly colored race cars, with the White House as a backdrop.

Bush's speechwriters made sure his comments would resonate with NASCAR fans. He referred to Matt Kenseth as the driver of the "No. 17 Ford" and he noted the presence of "the Cat in the Hat," team owner Jack Roush, who is famous for his hat. They were small details in the speech, but they suggested Bush spoke the language of stock car racing.

Photos of the president with the drivers appeared in many newspapers and magazines, giving Bush some NASCAR cred and helping cement his status as the candidate of rural America. After the event, I asked Harvick if he thought most of the drivers were Republicans. He replied, "I sure hope so!"

Indeed, the Republican Party has established itself as the party of Bubba. By emphasizing patriotism and deftly choosing issues that appeal to rural voters - gun rights, tax cuts and an opposition to Big Government - the GOP has established such a grip on the South that Democrats have essentially given up.

In 2004, Sen. John Kerry did not try to compete in most Southern states, focusing instead on the Northeast, the West Coast and a few battlegrounds such as Ohio and Florida.

A new book by longtime Democratic strategist Steve Jarding and Virginia developer and businessman Dave "Mudcat" Saunders argues against such a strategy. The authors say the Democrats can - and must - win the South again. In Foxes in the Henhouse, they argue the party can do that by reconnecting with rural voters and emphasizing the good that government has done.

"In just 45 years America went from a nation and a people who believed their government was just and good, and indeed was limited only by the extent of our imagination, to one in which our political leaders have brainwashed us to hate our government," they write.

Jarding and Saunders, who were key players in Democrat Mark Warner's remarkable victory in the 2001 Virginia governor's race, are frank about their party's predicament. Bush not only gained rural support from 2000 to 2004, but Republicans also have been chipping away at the Democratic base of women, blacks and Jewish voters, they say.

And tougher days lie ahead for Democrats. Today, the South has about 32 percent of the nation's population (and electoral votes). But it will have 40 percent by 2030. Meanwhile, Democratic states such as New York and Pennsylvania are losing electoral votes as people leave for the Sun Belt. So the Democrats can't keep conceding the South if they want to win the White House.

But how to win Bubba back? Democratic candidates should get in touch with rural culture by embracing hunting, fishing and NASCAR, as Warner did in Virginia, Jarding and Saunders say. Democrats should not pretend to be someone they are not (they say the Connecticut-raised Warner was careful not to pose as a Southerner), but simply show that they care about rural voters.

The authors also say their party should do a better job convincing rural voters that they have prospered because of programs created under Democrats such as Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson. "Republicans can try to rewrite history all they want, but tens of millions of Americans benefited from programs Democrats championed," they say.

Democrats have been too timid in responding to attacks and have allowed Republican candidates to define the Democrats (Kerry the flip-flopper, Gore the serial exaggerator) before the Democrats could define themselves, the authors complain.

"Democrats have to learn that when someone attacks your character with a bazooka, you attack his or hers with a nuclear weapon," they write.

Voters in the South and rural areas aren't put off by negative campaigning, Jarding and Saunders say. When a candidate is attacked, the voters "expect you to fire back."

Their rural recipe doesn't always work. They tried it when they worked on Sen. Bob Graham's presidential campaign. They sponsored a NASCAR team (It was "the No. 50 Bob Graham for President truck") and they had grand visions of "Sportsmen for Graham." But that was the wrong strategy for a primary campaign, when candidates are targeting party activists rather than swing voters. The Graham campaign had more serious problems (a late start, lack of money) than a NASCAR sponsorship could solve.

Yet Democrats would do well to pay attention to Jarding and Saunders' ideas. Their success with Warner (he won rural counties his party had lost for years) proves the strategy can work. With the right candidate and some carefully chosen words, the Democrats can win back some red states.

Unfortunately, Foxes in the Henhouse sags when its authors offer specific advice on issues. Several chapters read like term papers from Jarding's grad students (he teaches at Harvard University). The authors should have condensed the lengthy dissertations into a few simple points. Indeed, one of the reasons for the Republicans' success with rural America - and all of America, for that matter - has been their ability to communicate in plain, powerful language.

The book also shows that Democrats need to temper their anger. Jarding and Saunders are so frustrated about Republican domination that they resort to name-calling and silly insults.

They write that, in contrast to Kerry's three Purple Hearts for his Vietnam War service, President Bush "thought Purple Hearts were flavored marshmallows in Lucky Charms breakfast cereal." They refer to Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., as "a real nut job" and call Sen. John Thune of South Dakota "a pretty-boy fool." They say Ronald Reagan "could not hold Lyndon Johnson's jockstrap when it came to providing opportunity to disadvantaged Americans."

That rhetoric may be effective for rallying the Democratic troops, but it distracts from their message here. Insulting Republican leaders is not going to win back Bubba.

- Bill Adair, the Times Washington bureau chief, covered Bob Graham's presidential campaign.

[Last modified March 25, 2006, 09:46:03]