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February jobless rate ticks up a notch

Economists say the state's blip from 3 percent, a 30-year low, to 3.2 may be a statistical quirk, maybe even a good sign.

By SCOTT BARANCIK
Published March 31, 2006

Florida's unemployment rate crept up last month for the first time since the Sept. 11 attacks 41/2 years ago.

An estimated 279,000 of the state's 8.8-million workers were unemployed in February, boosting the jobless rate to 3.2 percent from January's 30-year low of 3 percent.

Economists aren't worried, however. February's uptick may be a statistical quirk. It's probably not the beginning of a trend. And it may even be a good thing.

"I see Florida's rate staying low for a while," said Karen Ransom, an economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Government statisticians noted that monthly estimates of Florida's unemployment rate are drawn from a survey of just 2,300 households.

February's rise was small enough that it was not considered "statistically significant," or reliable.

For two reasons, an increase may even be a good sign.

One is growing worker confidence. When the economy is perceived as strong, many unemployed people who had stopped looking for work resume their search.

Because of a peculiarity in the way unemployment rates are calculated - people not looking for work are ignored - an increase in job searchers can cause a temporary hike in the unemployment rate.

That may be precisely what happened in February, said Warren May, a spokesman for the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation.

And although a low unemployment rate is seen as favorable, an excessively low rate can be counterproductive.

Companies thinking about moving to or expanding in Florida may worry there aren't enough available workers or that their wage demands will rise, University of Florida economist David Denslow said.

Compared with the rest of the United States, Florida's 3.2 percent unemployment rate remained low in February. The national average rose to 4.8 percent last month, up from 4.7 percent in January.

On a year-over-year basis, a comparison many economists consider more meaningful than month-to-month changes, Florida's unemployment rate was down significantly from 4.1 percent in February 2005.

The state added 292,000 jobs during the period.

Data for the Tampa Bay area were mixed.

Pinellas County's unemployment rate was unchanged between January and February at 3.2 percent.

Hillsborough's rate fell to 2.9 percent from 3 percent, Citrus' fell to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent, and Pasco's and Hernando's held steady at 3.4 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.

Despite the rosy numbers, union officials remain concerned about the quality of Florida's new jobs.

"It's 2006 and we still do not have any type of comprehensive economic policy plan from the state that will really create the permanent, high-wage employment that is going to continue to build and strengthen the middle class in Florida,' AFL-CIO spokesman Rich Templin told the Associated Press on Thursday.

"We'd like to see more benefits created with these jobs. We've got 3-million workers in the state without health care."

Scott Barancik can be reached at barancik@sptimes.com or 727 893-8751.

[Last modified March 31, 2006, 01:08:15]