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If you plan to fly, buy tickets now

Airlines are raising prices for summer travel, and waiting for a sale might not be a good strategy.

By STEVE HUETTEL
Published March 31, 2006

Air fare experts have two words for those pondering when to book flights for summer vacations: Don't wait.

Ticket prices were up nearly 11 percent for January and February compared to the same months last year, and prices are only expected to climb. Airlines have cut the number of seats available on U.S. routes for the busy summer season.

That means there are fewer bargains and more competition to grab any cheap seats left, says Amy Ziff, editor at large for Travelocity, the big travel Web site.

"Deals are harder to find this summer to travel," she said. "You can't wait for the "perfect' price. This is the year of "good.' "

Some bargain-basement fares of a year ago are long gone.

With discounter JetBlue Airways battling Delta, Continental and American on heavily traveled New York-to-Florida routes, travelers snapped up round-trip tickets for as little as $120. Now the cheapest price from Tampa is just under $200, available throughout the summer.

On many other routes, airlines already are charging more for their cheapest tickets during the busy summer travel season.

On Thursday, Southwest Airlines' lowest fare for a Tampa-to-Pittsburgh round-trip flight over a weekend in May was a dirt-cheap $139. Book that same flight for the last weekend in July and it'll cost $199.

The cheapest round trip fare from Tampa to Chicago on Southwest also was $60 more - from $157 in May to $217 in July. Southwest's fares still were $6 to $50 cheaper than those of its closest competitor, American.

"You can get cheap seats up to June 15," said Tom Parsons of BestFares.com, a travel Web site. "On some routes they'll be 10 to 20 percent higher on the (cheapest fares) after that."

The beleaguered airline business clearly needs help.

U.S. carriers lost about $40-billion combined since 2000, hit by a decline in travel caused by the recession and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Then jet fuel prices climbed, jumping on average from 88 cents a gallon in 2003 to $1.72 last year. The average this month is $1.88, according to the Air Transport Association, an industry trade group.

Traditional carriers couldn't raise ticket prices because discounters with lower operating costs, like Southwest and JetBlue, could make money at fare levels that they couldn't.

That began to change last year. Four carriers - US Airways, United, Delta and Northwest - scaled back domestic flying while in bankruptcy, either returning planes to leasing companies, shifting aircraft to international routes without discount competition, or both.

And low-fare carriers came under increasing pressure from fuel prices, with JetBlue posting a small annual loss last year. With fewer available seats and continued strong consumer demand, the airlines have steadily nudged up air fares.

In the first two months of the year, fares were 10.6 percent higher than in January and February 2005 for major U.S. airlines, according to the Air Transport Association, an airline industry trade group.

But those levels are still 16 percent below the peak fare levels in 2000, said John Heimlich, chief economist of the Washington, D.C.-based group. "People say fares are up from a year ago, yet they're a bargain compared to the pre-9/11 environment," he said.

Air fare sales were so prevalent as recently as a year ago that consumers have been conditioned to wait for better deals, said Terry Trippler of CheapSeats.com.

"But since last Thanksgiving and Christmas, the airlines realized they could sell their seats at a profit," Trippler said. "Now, we have travelers who are waiting (for sales) that may end up disappointed."

Steve Huettel can be reached at huettel@sptimes.com or 813 226-3384.

[Last modified March 31, 2006, 01:10:06]