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In Nepal, power to people

Nepal's King Gyanendra wasn't the only person surprised by the depth and anger of prodemocracy demonstrations over the past month.

By REESE ERLICH
Published April 30, 2006

KATMANDU, Nepal - So were the political party leaders who called the demonstrations.

In an interview conducted here before a general strike that began April 6, a former foreign minister predicted that the demonstrations would last four days and that the king would likely remain in power for a time. Chakra Bastola, a leader of the Nepali Congress Party, said the king "could always be tempted to be harsher and stay put."

Instead, hundreds of thousands of people filled the streets of Nepal for nearly four weeks. They expressed anger at the arbitrary arrests, sagging economy, lack of free elections and the failure to negotiate a settlement to a 10-year guerrilla insurgency.

Trade unionists, students and professionals all participated. Even travel agents held a rally in the tourist district of Katmandu to protest the king's policies. The government tried to enforce daytime curfews and periodically shut down all cell phone service in an effort to disrupt demonstration planning. None of it worked.

Last week, King Gyanendra agreed to restore Parliament. The political parties, and eventually the Maoist rebels in the countryside, agreed to end their demonstrations. But the anger at the king's dictatorship runs so deep that many Nepalis are demanding a complete end to the monarchy, along with the king's control of the army, and a referendum on a new constitution.

The Bush administration seriously underestimated the popular discontent as well. During the uprising, at least 14 people were killed and thousands arrested. But for several weeks, the U.S. Embassy Web site carried only a two-paragraph criticism of the king's repression.

The mass movement wants far more change than Washington or top Nepali party leaders ever envisioned.

For centuries, Nepal's kings were considered gods. But they haven't been acting very godly lately. In 2001, the crown prince, according to official reports, assassinated his father the king and other members of the royal family, then killed himself. Gyanendra, the king's brother, ascended the throne and in February 2005 seized absolute power in alliance with the military.

Ian Martin, head of the U.N. High Commission for Human Rights in Nepal, says abuses are common. Political detainees and common criminals are regularly tortured. "I'm afraid torture is systematic, routine and widespread," he said.

U.N. statistics indicate that 82 percent of the population earns under $2 a day. Economic growth has slowed this year, and travel agents in Katmandu say their business is down 40 to 50 percent compared to last year. Workers at one hotel said their owners, who are allied with King Gyanendra, gave them permission to participate in the general strike - a sign that even the wealthy elite now question the king's power.

Nepalis are rethinking the whole concept of monarchy. The strike and mass demonstrations were supported jointly by the seven major parliamentary parties and the Maoist guerrillas. The Communist Party (Maoist) has long called for dismantling the monarchy and establishing a republic.

The mainstream party leaders, on the other hand, support a constitutional monarchy, which gives the king control of the army. Those leaders are now facing widespread dissent from ordinary Nepalis and some of their own members.

"A lot of youth are for a republic," said Sujata Koirala, another top leader of the Nepali Congress Party and daughter of a former prime minister. "If the king goes on like this, I think there will be no king in Nepal."

Last fall, the parliamentary parties and Maoist guerrillas signed a 12-point agreement calling for restoration of Parliament and the formation of a constituent assembly to write a new constitution, among other provisions.

The Maoists went underground 10 years ago to start a war modeled on the successes of Mao Zedong. The communists think present-day China has sold out its revolution and they advocate a "people's war" in which victories in the countryside would eventually overwhelm the king's forces in the cities.

Other contemporary Maoist parties who tried to adopt Mao's strategy, such as the Shining Path in Peru, have failed miserably. So the Nepalese Maoists are reformulating their views. Six months ago, the Maoists admitted they couldn't win immediate power, and even if they did, they would face a hostile India and China on their borders. "They've decided to accept multiparty competitive politics," said Kanak Dixit, a leading Nepali journalist. "They decided to come in for a safe landing."

The Maoists generate support, in part, because when the major political parties did hold power, from 1990-2001, they were known for corruption and squabbling. Dixit says if the Maoists became a legal party, they would be the third-largest political force in the country. Others say they could pull as much as half the parliamentary vote. No one knows for sure because the party remains outlawed.

The king has refused to negotiate with the Maoists, and they continue their armed struggle. At the beginning of the current protests, the guerrillas downed a military helicopter for the first time. The army only controls district capitals, conceding a vast amount of rural territory to the guerrillas, so an immediate military defeat of the Maoists seems unlikely.

Dixit said the entire prodemocracy movement must unite against the king as a first step toward negotiating with the Maoists to end the armed insurgency. "We must dialogue with them," said Dixit.

The Bush administration disagrees and strongly condemns the 12-point agreement between the political parties and the Maoists. U.S. Ambassador James Moriarty wrote in the Wall Street Journal-Asia, "While proclaiming themselves champions of democracy, peace and prosperity, they (the parties) find themselves in 'partnership' with a movement that settles arguments with a gun."

Nepalis note the irony of Washington condemning anyone for using guns to settle arguments. Washington would prefer that the political parties form an alliance with the king to crush the Maoists. The United States continues to provide the army with "nonlethal" supplies and trains its soldiers. On April 18, a worried Moriarty told CNN that "the crowds out in the street here are coming pretty close to a prerevolutionary situation." He urged the king to "reach out quickly" to the parties to prevent a Maoist victory.

Nepal sits between China and India, two major strategic concerns for the United States. A leftist government - whether the result of a "people's war" or fair elections - would certainly cause consternation in Washington. The next few weeks are critical for the democracy movement. The king's agreement to restore Parliament is only a first step. Nepalis will not be satisfied with a return to the corrupt politics of the past. They want genuine democracy, and it remains to be seen if the top political leaders can deliver.

Freelance foreign correspondent Reese Erlich reported from Nepal in early April. He has written for the Times since 1990.

[Last modified April 30, 2006, 08:02:12]