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Senate savior?

Pressure is growing on state House Speaker Allan Bense to challenge fellow Republican Katherine Harris in the U.S. Senate race. But defeating her won't be easy, and he will need fundraising commitments.

By TIM NICKENS
Published May 5, 2006

[Times illustration: John Corbitt]

TALLAHASSEE - Allan Bense will make plenty of decisions today before he brings down the gavel on the legislative session and a successful run as speaker of the Florida House.

By this time next week, Bense will have to make a far bigger personal decision: Whether to jump into the Republican primary for U.S. Senate against U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris.

Bense would be an awfully attractive candidate. He is a smart, self-made businessman from Panama City. He is thoughtful, more Main Street conservative than social conservative, and direct. After months of denying any interest in running for higher office, he now is giving it serious thought.

But Bense also sounds like more of a realist than other state House speakers who thought they were big shots and promptly lost races for Congress or statewide office. He understands he attracts a crowd on Adams Street in Tallahassee but is unrecognizable in Miami or Orlando or Tampa. He has no campaign staff, no money and no television ads. Harris has instant name recognition, $3-million of her own money invested in her campaign, and television ads that started running this week.

Yet there is a renewed effort to persuade Bense to enter the race. The panic among Republicans over Harris' pathetic campaign has grown, and there is a growing sense she must be taken out in the primary if she won't get out herself.

Let's connect the dots.

Gov. Jeb Bush, who refuses to run, says Bense would be "an outstanding candidate'' and has "doubts'' about whether Harris can beat incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Her former campaign consultant, Ed Rollins, has been unusually public in supplying damaging information about Harris - such as the price of that $2,800 dinner with defense contractor Mitchell Wade. Prominent Republicans such as former Florida GOP chairman Al Cardenas say Harris should get out.

"There is a growing consensus among most of the leadership of our party who feel the situation has gotten to a point that's not healthy,'' Cardenas said. "There is a growing consensus that with or without a primary there has to be an alternative to the current situation.''

Former House Speaker John Thrasher, who remains close to Bush, also wants to see Bense in the race. He volunteered he raised $5,000 for Harris some months ago "but that was before her campaign imploded.''

Harris has done absolutely nothing to reassure anyone she is a credible candidate. Her appearance on Fox News to announce she would throw into her campaign $10-million from her father's estate was bizarre - and turned out to be wrong. She hasn't fully explained Wade's $32,000 in illegal contributions to her campaign, her expensive dinner with him or the $10-million appropriation she later sought for a Wade project.

When she isn't badly playing defense, Harris' only offense has been to distort Nelson's voting record and trot out the tired and inaccurate "liberal'' label. It won't stick, and it won't work.

There was a point when Republicans calculated they could put up with Harris. They figured they would keep control of the U.S. Senate even if Nelson were re-elected. They bought in to conventional wisdom that the governor's race usually eclipses a Senate race in Florida, and that one won't affect the other in the minds of voters.

Not any longer.

Harris' performance has only gotten worse. So has the general political environment for Republicans: an incumbent president with his lowest job approval ratings who can't sell privatizing Social Security, individual health insurance accounts or anything else. An unpopular war, and a woefully inadequate response to Hurricane Katrina. Soaring gas prices and home-owners insurance premiums.

Suddenly, having a terribly flawed Senate candidate looks like a bad idea to Republicans determined to hold on to the Governor's Mansion with either Attorney General Charlie Crist or Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher.

"I think you could find some linkage,'' Thrasher said of the two races.

So Bense could be the white knight. But if he jumps in, he should do it with his eyes wide open. Harris is unpredictable, but she isn't likely to get out of the race. That means Bense would have to run over her in the primary, which won't be a cakewalk. Then he would have to reload to face Nelson, who has everything going for him and a huge campaign account.

Bense should be very specific with the governor and other Republicans about what it will take for him to spend his summer campaigning. Bush, Sen. Mel Martinez, Gallagher and Crist should join him at his campaign announcement. The governor has to give not just his list of contributors but his time and public support on the road and on television. The White House should endorse him immediately, and Republicans in Washington should tell him exactly how many millions they will invest in the race.

Bense is in the driver's seat. If Bush and the others can't make those commitments, he can drive back to Panama City in the old Corvette his House colleagues gave him. And they will be stuck with a candidate who can't win.

[Last modified May 5, 2006, 06:36:58]