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To thine own demographic be true

Do you prefer red wine or white? Coke or Pepsi? A Texas firm hired by New Port Richey says it can tell a lot about you just by where you live.

By BRIDGET HALL GRUMET
Published May 7, 2006

NEW PORT RICHEY - The marketing wizards have never met Maria Nobrega. But they know her pretty well.

Because Nobrega lives near New Port Richey, the wizards know there's a 1-in-3 chance she's a "Sunset City Blues" retiree who is likely to drive a Buick and eat at Bob Evans Restaurant. (The 75-year-old retired office worker does both.)

They also know a few things about Norman Desmarais and Donald Persing. They know there's a 1-in-3 chance these two fall into the "Hometown Retired" category, the folks who are likely to belong to a fraternal organization and watch the evening news.

Desmarais, a 65-year-old retired truck driver, and Persing, a 73-year-old retired machinist, don't fit the profile perfectly, though: Neither will touch a can of Ensure.

"If it doesn't have suds in it, we don't drink it," Persing said with a chuckle as the two headed to the Fraternal Order of Eagles 3153 last week for bingo.

While all of these predictions make for pretty nifty parlor tricks, the real motive is money. By mining census statistics, consumer purchase records and scores of other sources, the marketing wizards put people into categories and predict what kind of goods and services those folks want.

The city of New Port Richey hired a firm to do precisely that last year, with the hope of using the data to lure national retailers and restaurants to the area. They got a list of 15 businesses that could be a good match: Bennigan's, Barnes & Noble and Burlington Coat Factory, to name a few.

But they also got a fascinating portrait of the people in New Port Richey, and how their tastes in everything from cereal to cars could lure the next big retailer.

Public records indicate whether people rent or own their homes. Discount cards at the supermarket track the goods people buy. Census questionnaires gather information about people's age, ethnicity, education and income. TV ratings and magazine subscriptions indicate people's interests.

"There are hundreds and hundreds of factors that put you into one of those buckets," said Chip Rogers, assistant vice president of Buxton, the Texas firm hired by New Port Richey.

There is even a tongue-twisting name for all of this: geodemographics, the science of marketing based on where someone lives.

Another firm named Claritas invented the so-called buckets, each one holding a distinct geodemographic group. There are 66, each with quirky marketing names like "Money & Brains," "Kids & Cul-de-Sacs" and "Shotguns & Pickups."

The underlying theory is that people have similar backgrounds, tastes and means as their neighbors, in part because people move to neighborhoods where they fit in, and in part because they want to "keep up with the Joneses." That allows the marketing wizards to draw pretty interesting generalizations about people's preferences.

"Given your address," Rogers told city officials in March, "we can tell you whether you like red wine or white wine, or whether you drink Coke or Pepsi."

Buxton analyzed the area within a seven-minute drive of U.S. 19 and Main Street - the heart of New Port Richey - to find out who lives here and what retailers they might support. The city paid $45,000 for the study.

The results should shock no one who has driven by Bob Evans or a fraternal post lately: Two-thirds of the households are filled with retirees, some of them wealthy ex-execs, others working class. The rest are a mix of middle-aged professionals, working families and younger blue-collar workers.

The intriguing part is what this means for luring new businesses.

Two out of three households are home to people older than 65, but Buxton says a Chuck E. Cheese children's pizza parlor would fit in. Most household incomes average between $25,000 and $37,000, but Buxton says upscale clothier Ann Taylor and the indulgent Melting Pot Restaurant would belong.

The key is not the high percentage of fixed-income retirees, but the mixture of demographics in New Port Richey, Rogers said. The city is home to middle-class management and upper crust folks with wine collections, too.

"Just because you have a higher number of retirees, that doesn't mean there aren't other people that have a demand out there," he said.

The demographics also are changing. Census data has shown west Pasco getting younger, although the trend has been more dramatic in Holiday, where the average age dropped from 68 in 1990 to 48.5 in 2000, than in New Port Richey, where the average age has hovered around 45.

Developers plan to replace the Deep Lagoon Mobile Home Park and the Walden Pond Mobile Home Park - both sources of low-cost housing for New Port Richey retirees - with upscale condominiums. Main Street Landing will park another 55 residential units along the Pithlachascotee River, and the city is considering plans for even more condos, offices and shops overlooking Orange Lake.

"Those are not all going to be retirees going into those places," said Joe Alpine, president of the West Pasco Chamber of Commerce. "In just the next five years, you're going to see a lot more of a drop in the median age, I think."

City officials have contacted all 15 retailers Buxton identified as a good fit for New Port Richey: Ann Taylor, Barnes & Noble, Bennigan's, Burlington Coat Factory, Chico's, Chuck E. Cheese, Coffee Beanery, Don Pablo's Mexican Kitchen, the Fresh Market, Hancock Fabrics, Marble Slab Creamery, Melting Pot Restaurant, Panera Bread, Stein Mart and TGI Fridays.

Now the city is having informal talks with "three or four" of those chains that indicated some interest, redevelopment officer Caprena Laliberte said. But she emphasized the talks are preliminary: The retailers need more data before deciding whether to add New Port Richey to their constellation of locations.

City officials have said the added tax revenue from even one or two of these retailers would make the process worthwhile. But Alpine said it's also important for communities to know themselves.

"You have to spend money sometimes in the beginning, just like this study, to know who you are and what you have to offer," Alpine said.

"If you just look at our area and try to say, "Oh, yeah, we have a lot of young people,' or, "More and more people are moving in,' you have to be able to prove that somehow," he said. "That money is well spent when you see more businesses coming to our area and the success they have."

ON THE WEB: Want to find out the marketing demographics in your neighborhood? Enter your ZIP code at the following Web site: www.claritas.com/MyBestSegments/Default.jsp?ID=20

[Last modified May 7, 2006, 01:10:18]