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Hope amid ashes: Forecast calls for wildfire relief

Despite the dry spring, this year shouldn't be as destructive as 1998, forestry, fire and weather experts say.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published May 12, 2006

JACKSONVILLE - With flames 70 feet high in some pine trees and burning embers floating in the air, it didn't take any persuading for New Smyrna Beach resident Andrew Walsh to leave when authorities told him to evacuate last weekend.

"I couldn't believe it was so close, this time it was only a quarter mile away," the 76-year-old said. "There was nothing but smoke and helicopters flying at treetop level, filling up buckets from out (of a) little lake."

This time, as with the much more devastating wildfires of 1998, Walsh's home survived without any damage, but two of his neighbors' houses burned to the ground. That fire and others around the state have forced road closures and caused smoky conditions that led to four traffic deaths.

But Walsh and others should have less to worry about if predictions from forestry, fire and weather forecasters hold. They do not believe 2006 will be a repeat of 1998, a year that is somewhat the standard by which Florida wildfire destruction is measured.

Fires then burned about a half-million acres across the state during wildfire season, forced the evacuation of Flagler County and destroyed 342 homes and 34 businesses, causing an estimated $393-million in damages. So far this year, there have been 2,430 fires that have burned 73,915 acres.

Wildfire season is in the spring in Florida, when there is typically little rain. But rainfall is at least an inch below normal this year in central Florida, where the fires have been worst. After a wet winter in 1998, the rain stopped in the spring and day after day a Bermuda high prevented rain from reaching Florida.

This year, forecasters believe a current weak La Nina pattern that has caused above normal temperatures and steered rainfall away from the state is continuing to weaken. The National Weather Service is predicting that by June, normal rainfall will return and above normal precipitation is expected this summer. That doesn't mean firefighters can let their guards down.

"It could get worse in central and South Florida before it gets better," said Jim Karels, assistant director of the Florida Division of Forestry. So far, Karels said 33 homes have burned, but firefighters have protected 2,800 homes.

Two above-normal hurricane seasons have left many areas with a lot of flammable debris that becomes difficult to control in a fire, he said.

As of Thursday, the state was working 82 active fires, which had burned 49,000 acres, but spotty rainfall had allowed firefighters to get an upper hand on most of them.

People are responsible for most of the fires, Karels said. About 25 percent are caused by arson, 25 percent by lightning and the other 50 percent by human activity ranging from debris fires getting out of hand to power lines, railroads and children.

"A lot of it could be preventable," Karels said.

Alan Long, an associate professor of forestry at the University of Florida, has been in the field doing flammability testing on mulches and whether they are responsible for structure fires.

Long believes the fire situation will improve.

"Until this week, it was looking like '98," he said, noting that most of northern Florida has had some rain in the past few days and more is predicted. "It is certainly looking like it might not be so bad."

[Last modified May 12, 2006, 00:55:11]