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You're on your own. Ready?

After a catastrophic storm, even the best-run government services might take 72 hours to get here. Surviving that long will be up to you.

By GRAHAM BRINK
Published June 1, 2006

	[Times photo: Douglas R. Clifford]
	Last year, Everglades City residents who didn't evacuate before Hurricane Wilma got a painful lesson, as the city's streets filled with 3 feet of water. This year, officials are warning people in hurricane-prone areas to be better prepared. 2006 Hurricane Guide Interact: In a storm, what means a lot to you? Photos: Worst of hurricanes Video: Hurricane 911 call commercial

But this year, the tone has changed.

Government officials from President Bush to local emergency managers have stripped away the sugar coating:

Failing to plan could kill you.

"No more coddling,'' said Larry Gispert, Hillsborough County's longtime emergency management director. "We're telling them the first 72 (hours) are on you. The laggards need to wake up and be ready to take care of themselves."

That means knowing where you are going to ride out the storm and having enough food, water, emergency supplies and medicine to last at least three days.

Don't expect the government to provide for your every need within hours of a hurricane hitting.

The aggressive approach was prompted by last season's heavy death toll (more than 1,800, including at least 20 in Florida) and the obvious lack of preparation by people after Hurricane Wilma struck South Florida.

It also is a response to the continuing reality: A recent poll found that despite eight hurricanes hitting Florida in the past two years, a third of Floridians lack a basic survival kit.

Max Mayfield, head of the National Hurricane Center, says unprepared residents are playing a losing game of Russian roulette.

Florida emergency management director Craig Fugate says it's time to use a "sledgehammer" to get the message across.

Gov. Jeb Bush has embraced the hard-line "get prepared" mantra as well.

"No government on Earth can adequately respond to a natural disaster if the people are unprepared," Bush said at the annual governor's hurricane conference in May.

No excuses

There's really no excuse for being unprepared, emergency officials say.

Almost every major newspaper puts out hurricane guides. TV stations run countless stories on hurricane safety. Local emergency management offices have reams of information about flood and evacuation zones.

Hillsborough even distributes a weekly shopping guide for stocking emergency supplies over three months, which spreads out the cost.

This year the state added a $2.2-million public awareness campaign that includes an advertisement highlighting real 911 calls from victims struggling to stay alive during Hurricane Ivan. The message is simple and direct: "Get a plan.''

Tampa Bay area emergency managers and their staffs have been going to churches, schools, neighborhood associations and ethnic groups to spread the hard-line message.

"If you're not prepared, you really aren't trying," said Gary Vickers, Pinellas County emergency management director.

Pinellas, a densely populated peninsula that depends on several bridges, poses major evacuation problems. The county is also particularly vulnerable to storm surge, since 280 square miles are only slightly above sea level.

In a worst-case scenario, a major hurricane could inundate 55 percent of the county with seawater, Vickers said.

Hillsborough also is vulnerable: Such a storm would swamp much of downtown Tampa, South Tampa and coastal communities such as Apollo Beach. Coastal Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties also could be swamped.

The scene would look similar to the Mississippi coast after Katrina. The water would eventually recede, revealing who among those in evacuation zones got lucky and who died for staying.

Vickers becomes animated when he talks about the death toll from Katrina. The government made mistakes, he acknowledges, but many people made their own bad and ultimately fatal decisions.

"Unless people finally get prepared, it could happen here,'' Vickers said.

Gispert said he has been banging his head against a wall for more than 20 years to get people to stock up on supplies and come up with an emergency plan. He said the wall hasn't moved much at all.

So many people demand smaller government and less taxes, Gispert said. But when a disaster strikes, they scream for government to supply them with their every need.

"That's just not going to happen,'' Gispert said. "People need to get their heads out of the sand."

A busy season

If anyone needed another reason to get ready: The 2006 hurricane season once again is expected to be a busy six months (it ends Nov. 30).

The Hurricane Center predicted that as many as 16 named storms will form in the Atlantic Basin, including four to six major hurricanes. That would mean slightly more than 2004, but far fewer than last year's record of 28.

Historically, about one in every three hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Basin strikes the United States. Florida takes the brunt of those storms, suffering almost twice as many direct hits as Texas, the second leading state.

Extra warm waters in the Atlantic Basin can be partly blamed for last year's record setting season. Much of the basin was 1 to 4 degrees above normal. It might not seem like much, but warm waters fuel hurricanes. The warmer the waters the better the likelihood of increased storms and more major storms.

The good news: The ocean cooled over the winter more than the previous winter. The bad news: The temperatures remain above average.

Despite the prediction of fewer storms this year, Mayfield urged residents not to let down their guard.

As bad as it seemed last year, it could easily have been worse. Hurricane Dennis' worst winds just missed Pensacola. Rita's eye skirted the heavily populated Galveston-to--Houston corridor. Even Katrina didn't strike New Orleans dead on. And it hit as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120-125 mph, not a Category 4 (131-155 mph) or Category 5 ( greater than 155 mph) as first estimated.

Mayfield warned against using experiences to judge what a storm will reap.

Mayfield said he believes Hurricane Camille actually killed more people last year than it did when it struck Mississippi in 1969 because many residents who survived that storm thought nothing could be worse and rode out Katrina.

More than 200 of them paid with their lives.

"Experience,'' Mayfield has said repeatedly in recent months, "is not always a good teacher.''

The government prepares

Gov. Bush emphasized at his hurricane conference that government isn't abandoning residents. Emergency aid and workers will still pour quickly into disaster areas. Plenty of programs are in place to help keep residents safe, he said.

The state, for instance, again suspended sales taxes on many hurricane supplies so residents could stock up. To help evacuate those without transportation, Pinellas has coordinated with the Transit Authority to ensure buses run their regular routes and to shelters until sustained winds reach tropical storm strength, 39 mph.

Government has a "duty and obligation" to aid disaster victims, Bush said.

But it's a "lot harder when people line up in their Lexuses and Mercedes to get ice and water at a public distribution site when the Publix is open a block away," Bush said.

[Last modified June 1, 2006, 04:26:05]