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GOP: It's all in the effort

Republicans push bills such as a ban on same-sex marriage that have little chance of passing but appeal to their base.

By ANITA KUMAR
Published June 12, 2006

WASHINGTON - Last week looked like an abject failure for Republicans in Congress.

They lost two key votes banning same-sex marriage and a repeal of the estate tax.

But they didn't expect to win. And they don't expect to win later this month when they push another of their favorite issues, a ban on flag burning.

Their strategy is long-term: they hope the party will get credit at the polls in November for promoting bills important to their base.

"For Republicans, with many national forces working against them, they've got to do everything they possibly can to minimize their losses,'' said Richard Born, a congressional expert at Vassar College.

"Republicans are seizing on something that might work. My sense is voters will appreciate the effort.''

Republicans worry that disillusioned voters will not turn out for this fall's elections. Turnout is typically low in midterm elections, but it's expected to be worse this year because of President Bush's sagging approval ratings, growing dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq and the number of congressional scandals.

"This is pure politics,'' said Sen. Russell Feingold, D-Wis., during a Senate debate on the same-sex marriage ban last week.

Conservatives don't disagree.

"Is the timing suspect? Sure, you could say that,'' said Republican political consultant John Dowless, a former director of the Christian Coalition of Florida.

"It does motivate a certain group of voters.''

But Dowless stressed that the issues are not trivial and remain important to constituents. Republicans and Democrats are expected to cite last week's votes in candidates' forums and campaign ads this fall. The conservative Focus on the Family has already aired ads criticizing senators who voted against the marriage amendment.

Recent national polls show voters care about social issues, such as same-sex marriage, but generally are more concerned with escalating gas prices, immigration and terrorism.

"There are a number of difficult issues facing the people ... but issues like estate tax are not high on that list,'' Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said. "We are wasting precious days on these divisive issues when there are so many other matters that deserve and demand our attention.''

Reid, D-Nev., wrote to his Republican counterpart, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who sets the Senate agenda and is considering a run for president in 2008, to ask that the Senate debate a slew of national security issues.

Instead, the Senate spent several days debating a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage and permanently abolish the federal estate tax. Both failed, though Republicans and Democrats are trying to work out a compromise on the estate tax.

A constitutional amendment to ban flag burning is expected to be debated - but not passed - in the coming weeks.

"It's an attempt to show some unity and purpose,'' said John Fortier, a political scientist who studies Congress for the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. "It reminds voters there are certain core values, wedge issues, underlying differences between the parties.''

Why are the issues being debated now? Some say it's just circumstance and that the Senate could have - and should have - taken up the bills last year. Others say the timing is close enough to the election to help but far enough away to not hurt candidates if the effort backfires.

"When you go into this, a number of things happen: Somebody wants to do it because of an election. Others want to do it because they want to pass the bill,'' said Grover Norquist, a powerful conservative activist and president of Americans for Tax Reform. "You can have more than one reason for doing it. These do not conflict.''

The more conservative House passed bills on the estate tax and flag burning last year. It expects to take up the marriage amendment next month.

The Republican effort may backfire: They may alienate swing voters - needed by the more moderate Republicans, the party's most vulnerable incumbents - or even end up galvanizing Democrats.

"The bases may be extreme, but they aren't stupid,'' said Bill Frenzel, a former Republican House member who studies Congress at the Brookings Institution. "When they are being pandered to, they don't like it.''

Times researcher Angie Drobnic Holan contributed to this report. Anita Kumar can be reached at akumar@sptimes.com or 202 463-0576.

[Last modified June 12, 2006, 05:04:35]