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Alberto intensifies quickly

Officials worry that residents won’t take the storm seriously. About 21,000 people in low-lying areas are told to evacuate.

By MICHAEL KRUSE and GRAHAM BRINK
Published June 12, 2006

CEDAR KEY — Tropical Storm Alberto was expected to make landfall this morning in the Big Bend region and deliver a second day of nasty weather to the Tampa Bay area, after quickly intensifying on Monday.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center predicted that Alberto could come ashore near Steinhatchee, but possibly as far south as Crystal River, as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 70 to 85 mph.

Parts of the Big Bend region could experience 100 mph gusts and 10 feet of storm surge, forecasters said. About 21,000 residents in low-lying areas and some mobile homes from Citrus to Wakulla counties were told to evacuate.
The Tampa Bay area, which remained under a hurricane warning late Monday night, can expect winds of at least 40 mph, flooding in low-lying areas, an additional 4 inches of rain and extensive beach erosion.

State officials worried that too many coastal residents weren’t taking Alberto seriously. They evoked memories of Tropical Storm Josephine and the 1993 “no name” storm that caught many residents by surprise, killing dozens and flooding many low areas along the Gulf Coast.

“I hope people aren’t being defiant and recognize that this is a dangerous time and they should get to high ground,’’ said Gov. Jeb Bush.

Alberto won’t be all bad because it “will immediately help our lake levels and stream flows,’’ said Rebecca Courier of the Southwest Florida Water Management District, also known as Swiftmud. It will replenish the underground aquifer, too, she said, though “it takes a couple of days to soak in.’’

Terry McElroy, a spokesman for the state agency that oversees the Division of Forestry, said Alberto will help put an end to the wildfires that have been plaguing the state over the past few months.

“The Tampa Bay area in particular has been inundated,’’ McElroy said. “That really should all but eliminate the wildfire problem’’ in the area.

Alberto, moving northeast at 10 mph, quickly gained strength Monday as it crossed what is known as the Loop Current, a deep trough of clockwise flowing warm water that helped fuel several of last year’s monster storms. The storm’s sustained winds jumped from 50 to 70 mph in just three hours.

Predicting storm intensity is always a tricky business, said hurricane specialist Richard Pasch.

Alberto could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane (74 to 95 mph sustained winds) before it reaches land. A hurricane has not struck the United States this early in the year since Hurricane Alma hit the Panhandle on June 9, 1966.

“We were surprised, but we’ve been surprised before,” Pasch said. “We try to tell emergency management officials that storms can be stronger by one category than what we predicted.”

Alberto formed late last week as a tropical depression and drenched western Cuba and then southwestern Florida as it moved north through the Gulf of Mexico. The storm dumped 2 to 6 inches of rain on the Tampa Bay area on Monday. It was forecast to cross North Florida and then diminish as it moved into Georgia. If the storm tracks to the east, it could restrengthen over the Atlantic Ocean.

To the chagrin of emergency officials, many residents reacted to Alberto like Cedar Key business owner Paul Rimavicus. “This is nothing more than a big squall coming through,” he said.

Emergency officials warned against such an attitude. Ten years ago, they said, Tropical Storm Josephine followed a path similar to Alberto’s. In October 1996, the fairly weak storm hit 180 miles from Tampa in Apalachee Bay.

Josephine’s storm surge pushed water more than 5 feet above normal. Nearly 2,000 homes flooded in Pinellas County, costing about $24-million. Another 2,000 homes flooded in Hillsborough, Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties. At least 50,000 people in the Tampa Bay area lost power.

Despite that history, demand for hurricane supplies was low Monday afternoon at Lowe’s in New Port Richey, said assistant manager Patrick Baca.

“It’s pretty calm,” Baca said. “People aren’t taking it too seriously since it’s the first named storm of the season.”
In Cedar Key, hurricane preparation had its own style: Take the boats out of the water to higher ground, tie down patio furniture and anything else that might take flight.Bryan’s Big Deck Raw Bar, built low next to the swirling water, serves anything that can be fried.

“We’ll stay open,’’ said Bryan Skarupski. “When it gets like this, all the knuckleheads come out.”

Most of the 900 Cedar Key residents stick around during storms, said police Chief Bubba Castell. In the small police station, home to Castell and four officers, the phone rang and rang.

“Police Department. This is Bubba.” Pause. “Yes, ma’am.” Pause. “You can come in at this time. The roads are not closed. Should be fine.”

Castell hung up.

“Been like that all day,” he said.

Times staff writers Chris Tisch, April Yee, Joni James, Craig Pittman and Catherine Shoichet contributed to this report, which used information from the Associated Press.

[Last modified June 12, 2006, 22:26:56]