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Crist's advantages over Gallagher are showing

By ADAM C. SMITH and ALEX LEARY
Published July 2, 2006

Things are looking grim these days for Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Gallagher, who has been lagging rival Charlie Crist in fundraising, beating Crist in negative headlines, and still not running any TV spots while Crist has been up for weeks. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found Crist beating Gallagher 49-21 percent among registered Republicans, compared to 43-26 in a Quinnipiac poll in late May.

"Television can make a difference in politics. Attorney General Charlie Crist's sizable war chest began showing its muscle this month. Although the differences in the trial heats over the past month are not large, they are good news for Crist," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, U.S. Rep. Jim Davis was leading state Sen. Rod Smith 32-16 percent, with 49 percent undecided, compared to 38-17 percent in May.

The June 20-26 poll telephone survey of 1,311 Florida registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. For the primary matchups (520 Republicans and 528 Democrats) the margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

In hypothetical general election contests Davis was statistically tied with Crist, and led Gallagher 42 percent to 35 percent. Smith narrowly trailed Gallagher 39 percent to 36 percent and trailed Crist 42 percent to 35 percent.

Gallagher campaign spokesman Albert Martinez brushed off the poll numbers: "If public polling in June decided winners in September and November, Janet Reno would be governor, John Kerry would be president and Charlie Crist's biggest donors would be the happiest guys on earth."

CRIST'S CASH: At a well-attended fundraiser for Charlie Crist at the St. Petersburg mansion of Fazal Fazlin (who has also given $500 to Democrat Jim Davis), we're told finance chairman Brent Sembler said it was Crist's best money-raiser of the quarter. Among the co-hosts? Democratic state House 52 candidate Bill Heller.

YANKED SUPPORT: The Fraternal Order of Police, representing 20,000 members in Florida, voted to rescind its endorsement of Republican state Senate President Tom Lee for chief financial officer and instead back Republican state Rep. Randy Johnson for CFO. Union president James W. Preston said in a letter to Lee that he failed to deliver as they expected.

"The 2006 Legislative Session has concluded and all of our important priority bills received less than the attention and support from you that we had hoped for. Our members were disappointed," Preston wrote in the letter to Lee.

KEYNOTER: Bill Richardson - New Mexico governor, Democratic Governors' Association chairman, and 2008 presidential prospect - will be keynote speaker for the state Democrats' 2006 Jefferson Jackson Gala July 22 in Broward County. His speech will follow a debate by gubernatorial candidates Jim Davis and Rod Smith.

For those keeping score, Mark Warner, John Edwards, Tom Vilsack, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama have all headlined state party fundraisers over the past year (though Kerry's was canceled at the last minute after his former wife died). Are fellow '08 contenders Wes Clark, Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, and Joe Biden (a recent JJ keynoter) snubbing Florida? Or perhaps they're doing party activists a favor by sparing them their early stump speeches.

DRILLING DRUBBING: The Rod Smith campaign last week blasted Democratic rival Jim Davis for missing a meeting of the Florida congressional delegation Wednesday regarding oil drilling. "It's no secret that congressman Davis has the second-worst voting record in Congress. But to skip a meeting that is so crucial to Florida's future so he can campaign is an absence that is simply inexcusable," spokesman David Kochman said. "And then to grandstand about being a leader on this issue just adds insult to injury."

Davis made it to Washington on Thursday for the floor debate on offshore oil drilling. "We should be debating here today raising fuel efficiency standards, investing in research and development for the next generation of alternative and renewable energy," he said in a speech televised on C-SPAN. "We should not be sacrificing the environment, the economy of the state of Florida, for just a little oil and gas."

TV TIME: Meanwhile, Smith got some national TV exposure on Fox News' Hannity & Colmes show. Following a St. Petersburg Times article about how Smith handled an alleged rape case in 1999, the former prosecutor discussed the similarities between that and the ongoing Duke lacrosse team case.

GOV. GELBER: Jim Davis? Rod Smith? Who are those guys? If Gov. Jeb Bush could pick a Democrat, it seems he'd give the nod to state Rep. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach.

Bush, asked last week about a Democratic insurance proposal, said it was the one "unique" idea to come from the opposing party in five years (though he doesn't think it would work). He made a hypothetical reference to "Gov. Gelber," which drew laughter. "I'm not joking," Bush said. "He would be a very well-qualified governor. I respect him a lot." Then he continued to dismiss the proposal.

So how 'bout it, Dan? "Despite policy differences, I do have a measure of respect for him," Gelber told the Buzz. "Though I'm not quite sure his endorsement will carry me through the primary. I may want to save it for the general."

McCOLLUM'S ENDORSEMENTS: Republican attorney general candidate Bill McCollum picks up some Miami endorsements: U.S. Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, and Mario Diaz-Balart. Also last week, state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster, McCollum's onetime rival for the GOP Senate nomination, endorsed McCollum.

Adam C. Smith and Alex Leary contributed to this week's Buzz. For more political news check out www.sptimes.com/blogs/buzz.

[Last modified July 2, 2006, 01:41:27]