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LEONORA LAPETERBut Angelo Cappelli and Bill Heller are likely to win the primary. Analysts say the general election is a tossup.
Just weeks before the Sept. 5 primary, the state House District 52 race is emerging as a contest of community giants and determined underdogs.
On the Republican side, St. Petersburg native Angelo Cappelli, a bank trust adviser, has raised $136,113 - more than all his competitors combined. His Republican rival, Ross Johnson, has been walking door-to-door for months. He has raised the least money: $39,248.
On the Democratic side, former University of South Florida St. Petersburg dean Bill Heller also has shown he has popular support by raising more in two months than his opponent, Liz McCallum, did in a year and a half of campaigning. This contest is getting prickly, with him accusing her of not knowing the community well enough and her accusing him of not being a true Democrat.
Political analysts speculate that Cappelli and Heller will win their primaries Sept. 5 and face off in the Nov. 7 general election.
"On the Republican side, Angelo Cappelli, he's out in the forefront and he's raised a lot of money and he has a lot of hard-core Republican support," said Lars Hafner, a political analyst and former Democratic state representative. "But Heller could make inroads in that support when it comes to the general election."
The race is considered one of a handful the Democrats must win to be relevant in Florida politics again.
"That's a key race in the state of Florida though it's a tossup," said Darryl Paulson, a professor of government at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg. "The Republicans have won that race the last eight years. But it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Democrats picked up that seat."
All four candidates are spending their time going door-to-door in the district's neighborhoods, which cover parts of Clearwater, Largo, unincorporated Pinellas and northern St. Petersburg.
Still McCallum, a campaign consultant who moved to Pinellas County in 2004, and Johnson, a part-time Realtor, claim they've reached more voters by knocking on doors.
The Democrats
McCallum and Heller have begun to attack each other.
McCallum has labeled Heller as the "big money" guy with support from the community elite. She has portrayed herself as the grass roots candidate.
"The biggest difference between me and my primary opponent is that I'm talking and listening to them and understanding their concerns," said McCallum, 37. "My opponent is talking at them. He doesn't have time to walk all the neighborhoods or the volunteer effort so he's going to barrage them with TV (ads)."
Heller, 70, who entered the race late in June, has spent $49,883 of the $59,171 he has raised (not including a $20,000 loan) with Bright House Networks for TV ads.
His campaign signs should begin appearing this weekend. He has sent out a few mailers, including one that says he will stand up against insurance companies that cherry-pick auto and life insurance policies.
McCallum, on the other hand, has poured much of the $43,017 she has raised into signs and campaign mailers that tell voters she's like them and won't be beholden to special interests. She said she isn't buying TV ads.
Heller, who has lived here 14 years, rejected the notion that McCallum knows Pinellas more. He led a citizens group that successfully pushed a tax referendum to give Pinellas County teachers more pay, serves as chairman of Bayfront hospital's board of trustees and as president of Great Explorations children's museum.
"I agree that this election should be a referendum on who knows our community better," he said. "Ms. McCallum has lived here only two years, but done nothing but run for office and not served in any leadership capacity in this community."
State party and House Democrats, including Betty Castor and Charlie Justice, recruited Heller to run against McCallum because they thought he had a better chance to win in the general election, political analysts say.
In an interview with the Times editorial board, Heller said he has not received as much support from the local Democratic Party and its recently elected chairman, Ed Helm.
"It's hard when you see (a McCallum) bumper sticker on his car when he should be supportive of every candidate," Heller said. "The party could be more unified."
Helm said he was not favoring either candidate. He said he removed the bumper sticker on his car from McCallum's last bid for House District 52. But his wife has a McCallum bumper sticker on her car and they recently traded cars for a few days.
McCallum, author of Florida's Guide to Political Appointments, won 47 percent of the vote two years ago against Frank Farkas, the incumbent who is now running for state Senate. That kind of support, she said, shows that thousands of voters know her.
"She did well two years ago because Frank Farkas had done some things in the Legislature and after six years developed political enemies and opposition," said Paulson, the USF government professor.
Analysts say Heller would appear to have the upper hand - even though McCallum has been campaigning for two years.
McCallum questions whether Heller is truly a Democrat considering he has given so much to Republican candidates. Since 1996, Heller has given at least $5,000 to various state Democratic candidates and at least $4,300 to state Republican candidates - including to Angelo Cappelli for this seat (a contribution Heller made before entering the race himself) and to Charlie Crist for governor. He even was listed as a host on a fundraiser for Crist, something he agreed to months before he became a candidate. He didn't go.
Heller said he's a bridge-builder, with friends who are both Democrats and Republicans, someone who is able to draw consensus from people of both parties.
"As dean of USF, it was important to the university that I have relationships on both sides of the aisle," Heller said. "But what's more interesting is Ms. McCallum's contributions. Aside from loans to her own campaign, she has only made a single contribution of $50 to one candidate."
McCallum said she may not have enough money to contribute to Democratic candidates but she has helped their campaigns in other ways.
The Republicans
The low-key contest between Cappelli, 36, and Johnson, 53, has so far been waged in mailers and at the doorsteps of voters. Cappelli had little to say about his strategy - except that he is trying to reach as many voters as possible.
Cappelli, whose mother-in-law is a longtime aide to Mel Sembler, former ambassador to Italy, has roots here.
Moreover, Cappelli had about $79,000 left as of Aug. 11, but he began TV ads Tuesday.
Political analysts say Johnson, who raised a respectable $38,248 in campaign contributions, is a true underdog. Johnson has hundreds of signs and is sending out mailers before the primary, including one that talks about a "second-generation" FCAT that would "teach kids more than just taking a test."
"The bottom line for my whole campaign is walk, walk, walk, walk," Johnson said. "People respond personally to a candidate who's asked personally for their vote."