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Sink or swim

Is Katie Couric ready for prime time? She takes the desk tonight on CBS.

By ERIC DEGGANS
Published September 5, 2006

I’ve always been of two minds about Katie Couric and her new job anchoring the CBS Evening News.

Why would Couric want to leave the growing world of morning news to lead a third-place program airing at an hour many pundits claim is irrelevant to too many viewers?

Couric insists she’s taking the job to make the evening news more engaging. Pay is not an issue: She’s said to be earning $5-million less than the $20-million offered her to stay at NBC’s Today.

And you can’t ignore the fact that she is the first woman named as solo anchor of a U.S. network evening newscast.

Anchors “are still part of a journalistic aristocracy that we pay attention to,” said Robert Thompson of Syracuse University. “Katie has been anointed queen, handed Walter Cronkite’s chair and the chance to work on 60 Minutes.”

Good point, but I’m not entirely convinced. So I’ll debate myself on whether Couric will succeed or fail.

Best of all, no matter what happens, I’ll be right. 

WHY SHE'LL SUCCEED

Reason No. 1: She's unpretentious - or at least less pretentious than the typical anchor.

Maybe she lacks gravitas, but Couric's talent for self-deprecation helps sell her as a more genuine personality to an audience wary of big egos. This is a woman who once jokingly complained on the Today show about a story delivering too much information in the morning. "People still want to believe in news anchors," cultural commentator Kurt Andersen wrote recently in New York magazine. "That nth degree of credibility, however, is achieved these days . . . by a smart person who comes across as more or less normal on the air."

Reason No. 2: Women like her. According to a recent poll by Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 47 percent of women surveyed described her positively, and 13 percent were negative. Among men, she scored 31 percent positive and 16 percent negative. Despite charges of liberal bias, she was also most popular with moderate Republicans. And since a majority of TV viewers at 6:30 p.m. are women, Couric may tap a significant audience. "It's the 'You go, girl' factor," said Matthew Felling, media director for the Center for Media and Public Affairs. "Women don't see her as competition, they see her as a sister. And they want her to do well."

Reason No. 3: Network news is still the biggest game around. Combined, ABC, CBS and NBC draw an average audience of about 20-million people for the evening news broadcasts. CBS's evening newscast drew an average of about 7-million viewers the week of Aug. 21, according to Nielsen Media Research, nearly three times the audience of cable news' biggest draw, Fox News' Bill O'Reilly.

Network news viewership is down; in the 1991-92 season, the three network newscasts drew about 36-million viewers, according to Nielsen. But network news "is and remains the largest single source of news in America every day," as NBC news anchor Brian Williams noted during a press conference in July. "Here we are in a world of 600 channels . . . and yet, Americans in very large numbers sit down and make it appointment viewing."

Reason No. 4: She'll be everywhere. Couric is becoming the face of CBS News, which is presenting her newscast online as it airs on TV and showcasing her in a Web log, podcasts, cell phone blasts, CBS Radio reports and more. "If they had used her celebrity just to persuade people to tune into the network at 6:30 p.m., that would have been futile," said Andrew Tyndall, a network news analyst and consultant. "They're saying . . . tune in to Katie and CBS News on any platform (where) you'd like to see her."

Reason No. 5: The bar for success is set low. CBS can declare victory if Couric lifts it past ABC into second place, a task made easier for her by interim anchor Bob Schieffer's success. The week of Aug. 21, CBS and ABC were separated by just 200,000 viewers, according to Nielsen; with Couric's high-profile debut, hitting that mark should be child's play.

WHY SHE'LL FAIL

Reason No. 1: Couric fatigue. As measured as CBS's publicity campaign has been in some respects, it feels as if there has been a major news story about her transition every week since it was announced in April. Though that may spark a flood of initial interest, viewers may also tire of her quickly.

Reason No. 2: Viewer whiplash. With his more traditional, old-school approach, interim anchor Bob Schieffer attracted more than 300,000 new viewers to the CBS Evening News in the 2005-2006 season, according to Nielsen. Couric's cyber-savvy broadcast may feel like an abrupt left turn for Schieffer's audience, whose median age is about 61.

Reason No. 3: CBS is wasting money on celebrity. Media consultant Andrew Tyndall has argued for years that people aren't tuning out evening newscasts because of the anchors; they're tuning out because they don't have the time to watch TV news at 6:30 p.m. "If you're going to spend millions, why not spend it on news-gathering resources rather than celebrity?" he said, noting that CBS has sunk big bucks beyond Couric's salary into marketing her show. "To me, it's a throwback strategy to another time."

Reason No. 4: She'll be everywhere. Newscasts, TV specials, blogs, podcasts, radio reports, cell phone updates, newsmagazine stories and advertisements add up to an awful lot of Katie. Viewer burnout due to Reason No. 1 seems likely.

Reason No. 5: She may not be listening to viewers, after all. When Couric finished her much-publicized "listening tour," she concluded, "They want more thinking and less spewing."

So why did CBS announce, about two weeks later, a new commentary segment called "Free Speech?" Wooing viewers may be tough if you don't actually implement the changes they demand.

Eric Deggans can be reached at (727) 893-8521 or deggans@sptimes.com See his blog at www.sptimes.com/blogs/media.

PREVIEW

Katie Couric takes over as anchor of the CBS Evening News at 6:30 tonight; watch on WTSP-Ch. 10.

[Last modified September 5, 2006, 15:15:12]