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Florence likely to become hurricane

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published September 8, 2006

MIAMI - Tropical Storm Florence held its strength in the open Atlantic early Thursday, still far from the United States but large enough that forecasters warned it could create high surf and rip currents along the East Coast within the next five days.

The storm's forecast path puts it over the Bermuda area Monday or Tuesday, forecasters said.

"The concern would be Bermuda at this point, how close the destructive force winds will move toward it," said Dave Roberts, a Navy forecaster at the National Hurricane Center.

Florence had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph Thursday and tropical storm force winds extending as much as 405 miles from its center. Its sustained winds were expected to strengthen Thursday and today and pass the 74 mph threshold for a hurricane by the time it nears Bermuda.

At 11 p.m. Thursday, the storm was 505 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, about 930 miles southeast of Bermuda and about 1,556 miles southeast of Miami. It was moving west-northwest at about 15 mph.

Even though the forecast shows the storm's center will likely remain off the U.S. coast, Florence's large size meant that ocean swells could cause high surf and rip currents from the mid-Atlantic states northward by Tuesday, said Stacy Stewart, a senior hurricane specialist at the hurricane center.

Florence developed in the peak of hurricane season in warm Atlantic waters, the source of energy for storm development this time of year. Forecasters said those waters are not as warm as last year's storm season, which had a record 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes, including Katrina.

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season has not been as rough as feared. The National Hurricane Center has lowered its forecast to between 12 and 15 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes.

[Last modified September 8, 2006, 02:27:09]