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Realtor ranks likely to drop in soft market

Real estate schools are seeing enrollment fall as established agents get most of the business.

By CHUIN-WEI YAP
Published September 22, 2006

The Greater Tampa Association of Realtors projects it will lose at least 10 percent of its members next year, an association official said Thursday.

The slide comes as real estate school enrollment rates fell 25 percent statewide in the past two months.

"Across the country, they have seen reductions of between 5 percent and 40 percent, but some places are also reporting increases," said Carol Austin, the association's chief executive officer.

The latest data were presented to the association's board of directors this week.

The news comes on the back of small dips in employment numbers in the broader economy, and is a far cry from rosier numbers in the beginning of this year.

In February, the association reported its membership up by about 2,000 agents, buoyed by a booming 2005. Now, its ranks of 6,500 are thinning.

"Newer Realtors don't stand a chance," said Rae Catanese-Shatto, a Tampa-based Realtor. "They don't have the reserves built up to get them through the slow period. The only Realtors making a living right now are the experienced ones that are working off referrals from past clients and have a heavy marketing campaign."

Other associations, like the West Pasco Board of Realtors, say they won't know how their membership would fare until dues are renewed in January.

They would almost certainly have fewer new members.

"It was the most precipitous drop I've seen," Bob Hogue of the St. Petersburg-based Bob Hogue School of Real Estate said of the dwindling enrollment rates.

"I was expecting it, but it was more shocking than I anticipated," he said. "I have to prepare my instructors that classes will be smaller."

In August, real estate schools statewide were graduating 2,070 real estate agents, 22.6 percent fewer than the 2,675 graduates of August 2005.

The year-on-year comparison for July showed a 27.5 percent fall, from 3,949 to 2,864 graduates, according to state figures quoted by Hogue.

Classes at Hogue's school, numbering more than 550 this year, will shrink by about 10 percent next year, he said.

Still, online classes apparently show some resilience, according to Hogue and other schools. "We're up 25 percent on continuing education," said Lori Rodgers of Bert Rodgers Schools of Real Estate, an entirely online classroom.

For an area heavily reliant on the property market, the question now focuses on how far the slowdown will seep into the broader economy.

The most recent Tampa Bay Partnership's Regional Economic Scorecard showed the area leading a peer group of six cities in job growth and unemployment rates.

Latest available state figures show unemployment rates in Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas and Citrus counties about 1 point below the national rate of 4.6 percent.

But job numbers in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Pasco fell - though each by less than 1 percent - between July and August.

Citrus' employment grew by 2 percent in the period. Hernando had an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent.

One bright spot for those in the realty business:

"We remind people that there's going to be less competition," Hogue said. "It won't be pleasant, but we're going to be fine."

Chuin-Wei Yap covers growth and development in Pasco County. He can be reached at cyap@sptimes.com or (813) 909-4613.

[Last modified September 22, 2006, 00:13:22]