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Q&A: North Korea

By Times Staff Report
Published October 9, 2006

What happened?
North Korea has declared that it has successfully completed its first underground test of a nuclear device. The test was done in defiance of international calls for restraint.

So North Korea has a nuclear bomb?
If verified, the test proves that Pyongyang has the potential for developing a nuclear weapon. In some respects, the test would simply be a confirmation. Many experts had already concluded that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had the materials and technology to build a bomb, and may have possessed one for some time before the announcement.

What is North Korea’s next step?
It has to make a nuclear warhead small and light enough to be mounted on a medium-range or long-range rocket. Such a device could be delivered to its target by one or more missile types among North Korea’s extensive arsenal. While the accuracy of its missiles may be in doubt, the communist nation shocked the world in 1998 by firing a long-range ballistic missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. In July it test-launched seven missiles, although a long-range rocket believed capable of reaching U.S. shores was detonated shortly after liftoff. A nuclear bomb can also be dropped from a plane, but defense analysts assume that North Korea would prefer to fit it to a missile, which reaches its target faster and is harder to shoot down.

Why does this matter so much?
The nuclear test follows four years of mounting tension between North Korea and the United States, in what is possibly the most serious threat to East Asia’s security. It may decisively shift Asia’s diplomatic and military alignment, hardening China and South Korea’s approach toward their reclusive neighbor, strengthening Japan’s security stance and cementing long-term U.S. presence in the region.

If a nuclear test is confirmed, it may effectively end hopes of resolving the North’s nuclear weapons standoff through stalled six-nation talks. It would also greatly increase the risk of an East Asian arms race, as countries like Japan and South Korea weighed whether to go nuclear as well.

Why has North Korea decided to test now?
Secretive leader Kim Jong Il appears to have given up negotiating. He may have decided the United States was never going to meet his conditions for giving up the North’s nuclear programs. Official media have long warned that Washington was preparing to attack and that developing a nuclear capability was the only way to prevent this. Kim may also still be smarting after China, the North’s only real ally, backed U.N. sanctions against the country in July. Left isolated, he may feel that a nuclear test was the best way to shore up his own authority at home. Also, with Iran’s nuclear program the recent international focus, Kim may be trying to shift attention back to his country.

What do we know about North Korea’s nuclear weapons program?
It claims to be working on building up its nuclear weapons arsenal. The problem is it is very difficult to verify these claims. Most experts suspect North Korea did have an active program — at least up to 1994, when it signed a landmark agreement to freeze nuclear-related activities. But in December 2002, it restarted its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon and forced two U.N. nuclear monitors to leave the country. It’s not clear how far work has progressed at Yongbyon since. If fully operational, it could produce enough plutonium for roughly one weapon per year, some believe. The CIA says a separate enriched uranium program could be producing “two or more” bombs per year by the middle of this decade.

How many weapons does North Korea already have?
It’s very hard to say without inspections. U.S. officials put the number at “one or two.” About 8,000 spent fuel rods put into storage in 1994 could also provide enough weapons-grade plutonium for a handful more weapons. Others estimate the North may have eight or more bombs.

Sources: Associated Press, BBC, USA Today.

[Last modified October 9, 2006, 23:30:18]