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North Korea could be tempted to sell its technology

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published October 12, 2006

TOKYO - North Korea's claim to have successfully tested a nuclear bomb has raised a terrifying question: How long will it be before a desperate Pyongyang decides to earn some hard cash by selling its bomb technology?

The proliferation risk quickly became a world focus after North Korea's claim of a test Monday. President Bush immediately said such transfers would pose "a grave threat."

The Bush statement signaled a shift in U.S. priorities from stopping the North from developing a weapon to preventing Pyongyang from enabling others to build their own bombs.

"He was sending the message that this is a red line, and that if you cross it, you will have to bear the consequences," said Alexandre Mansourov, an expert on North Korea at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.

Japan and others have followed suit by putting further steps to stop the transfer of North Korean nuclear materials - or even actual bombs - to other states or terrorist groups at the top of the security agenda.

"We must prevent the export and proliferation of nuclear technology ... as an utmost priority," Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said Wednesday. "Japan will push for stern measures at the U.N. Security Council to deal with this threat."

North Korea is believed to be no stranger to the arms business. Western intelligence agencies have reported, for instance, that Iran's Shahab-3 missile is based on a North Korean rocket, though Tehran denies it.

There is also concern that further economic sanctions, by putting the squeeze on the North's already moribund economy, could make the regime so desperate for money that it would risk selling its material.

But analysts say there are important barriers to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's jumping into the nuclear sales business.

One problem, when it comes to selling nuclear fissile material, is supply. Mansourov said North Korea only has at most some 132 pounds of separated plutonium.

"My feeling is that Kim Jong Il is not going to give away or sell something that he has in a very limited quantity," he said.

Then there is the significant chance of getting caught. North Korea might find the risks are too high, particularly so soon after its apparent test triggered an international torrent of criticism and indignation.

Terrorists, meanwhile, lack control of the territory and freedom of movement needed to conduct a full-blown nuclear research program, meaning they are primarily interested in workable weapons rather than fissile material or hardware such as centrifuges.

But transferring an entire weapon, particularly if it is large like North Korea's are presumed to be, would be even more daunting than slipping out smaller packages of material.

That perceived reluctance to dabble in nuclear arms transfers, however, could wane with time, depending on whether sanctions being considered cripple the North's economy.

[Last modified October 12, 2006, 00:33:37]