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Washington Post

A glimmer of hope while situation in Baghdad corrodes

By DAVID IGNATIUS
Published October 16, 2006

WASHINGTON - As the security situation in Baghdad has deteriorated over the past month, there has been growing talk among Iraqi politicians about a "government of national salvation" - a coup, in effect - that would impose martial law throughout the country. This coup talk is probably unrealistic, but it illustrates the rising desperation among Iraqis as the country slips deeper into civil war.

The coup rumors come from several directions. One example: U.S. officials have received reports that a prominent Sunni politician, Salah Mutlak, visited Arab capitals over the summer and promoted the idea of a national-salvation government and suggested, erroneously, that it would have American support.

Frustration with Maliki's Shiite-led government is strongest among Iraq's Sunni minority, which dominated the old regime of Saddam Hussein. But as sectarian violence has increased, the disillusionment has spread to some prominent Shiite and Kurdish politicians as well. Some are said to support the juntalike commission, which would represent the country's main factions and include former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who is still seen by some Iraqis as a potential "strongman" who could pull the country back from the brink.

The situation is deteriorating so fast that even radical militia leaders are said to be complaining about the anarchy. Moqtada al-Sadr, a Shiite firebrand who heads the militia known as the Mahdi Army, recently told a top official of the Iraqi intelligence service that "an increasing number of Shia death squads, operating under the name of his Mahdi Army, are Iranian pasdaran Revolutionary Guards staff officers and Hezbollah fighters who are executing operational activities that he is not aware of, nor can he control," according to one U.S. source.

The perception in Baghdad, as in Washington, is that Iraq is nearing the breaking point and something has to give. But what?

When you peel away the "stay the course" rhetoric, the Bush administration's best hope seems to be for a federal solution in Iraq in which the central government devolves power to the Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni regions, oil revenues are shared equitably, the Iraqi army maintains order in unruly areas such as Baghdad and U.S. forces gradually pull back. But this leaves the unresolved problem of the lawless Sunni Triangle

However, an opportunity exists for creative diplomacy that could begin a process of orderly American withdrawal. A deadline for renewal of the U.N. legal mandate for coalition forces in Iraq comes in December.

This issue provides a useful chance for U.S.-Iraqi negotiation of a phased timetable for reducing American forces and closing some U.S. bases. That discussion is in everyone's interest.

- David Ignatius's e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.

[Last modified October 16, 2006, 08:58:54]