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Dangerous middle ground

Rapid growth has put more drivers on the road - but not enough, yet, to force them to slow down.

By BEN MONTGOMERY
Published October 19, 2006

They are remembered with wooden crosses planted beside asphalt, with balloons, with teddy bears fixed to scarred trees with baling wire, with notes that say things like, "I'm sorry I was so bitchy to you last year."

In 11 days, five people - three of them teenagers - died violently on roadways in ever-expanding eastern Hillsborough County. The latest victim, Fredrick Gardner, 15, died Wednesday in Gibsonton when a schoolmate hit him with a truck, authorities said.

Outwardly, the deaths are isolated events connected only by time, geography and news reports.

But are there hidden commonalities? Is there something to be learned from five traffic deaths in 11 days?

The numbers are perplexing, even to experts in traffic patterns and urbanization. Traffic trends tend to be complex when so many factors are involved, such as road conditions, driving ability, speed, discipline and law enforcement.

At least one truth exists: As a road system gets more crowded, the exposure for accidents increases, said Steve Polzin of the Center for Urban Transportation Research at the University of South Florida.

"As roads get busier," Polzin said, "the probability of human error increases and you're more likely to have a nasty consequence."

For example: If you swerve to avoid a stray cat and no one is coming in the other direction, you won't crash. If someone is coming, you may.

In Hillsborough County, where the population swelled from 998,948 in 2000 to 1.1-million in 2005, more someones are out there.

Ask Robert Kouveras, a Hillsborough County senior traffic engineering specialist. He and his staff look at accident patterns and citizens' complaints about roads, trying to alleviate problem spots. They've been swamped lately, he said.

"It stands to reason that the more people you have involved, the more chances you have for something to happen," said Sandra Moody, executive director of Bay Area Commuter Services. "It's numbers."

That's true to a point. But it's also true that some major urban areas with more traffic and more people have lower rates of fatal accidents.

That's because congestion can actually help prevent accidents by slowing vehicles, Polzin said. In other words, if you're creeping down Interstate 275 at morning rush hour, you most likely won't run off the road and be killed.

So the situation in eastern Hillsborough County may partly be the combination of rapid growth and open roads that allow high speeds, he said.

Kouveras points out that most county roads are limited to 45 mph or less. "The problem is people exceed them," he said.

And until congestion slows traffic, or drivers abide by the limits, drivers and pedestrians are at a greater risk for high-impact collisions.

"If we congest things to a point where people slow down, that minimizes the speeds" and reduces the number of fatal accidents, Polzin said.

But there are also cultural problems, the experts say. Many drivers in rural or suburban areas - where cars rule the road - disregard crosswalks and pedestrian rights of way. Also complicating traffic are the many long-distance commuters - those heading to Tampa from the suburbs - who tend to multitask.

Countywide, there have been 201 traffic deaths this year compared with 291 in 2005 and 252 in 2004.

"At some point," said Polzin, "awareness, disciplines and behaviors have to start to change."

"There's got to be an education for everybody," Moody said.

Wednesday morning, on Bullfrog Creek Road, near skid marks 280 feet long, Fredrick Gardner's sister and her friends tried to find the exact spot where the 15-year-old died. They wanted to plant a roadside memorial.

Staff writers S.I. Rosenbaum and Saundra Amrhein contributed to this report. Ben Montgomery can be reached at bmontgomery@sptimes.com or 813 661-2443.

[Last modified October 19, 2006, 05:30:18]