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The rising Democratic majority

By Washington Post
Published October 25, 2006

President Bush's six-year effort to create an enduring Republican majority based on a right-leaning coalition is on the verge of collapse. The way he tried to create it could have the unintended consequence of opening the way for an alternative majority.

This incipient Democratic alliance, while tilting slightly leftward, would plant its foundations firmly in the middle of the road because its success depends on support from moderate voters.

That's why a Democratic victory in November - defined as taking one or both houses of Congress - would have effects far beyond a single election year.

The Democrats' dependence on moderate voters belies Republican claims that a Democratic victory would bring radically liberal politics to Washington.

In fact, the first imperative of Democrats if their party is successful would be finding policies, ideas and rhetoric that could allow the party's progressives and moderates to get along and govern effectively together.

The strategy pursued by Bush has frightened most of the political center into the welcoming arms of Democrats. Bush sought victory by building large turnouts among conservatives and cajoling just enough moderates the Republicans' way.

But this approach created what may prove to be a fatal political disconnect: Adventurous policies designed to create enthusiasm on the right turned off a large number of less ideological voters.

The Democrats current lead in the polls can be thus explained by two factors: the energy of a passionate phalanx of voters desperate to use this election to rebuke Bush; and the disenchantment of moderates fed up with the failures of Bush's governing style and ideology, notably in Iraq.

But Democratic moderation carries a sharp edge of economic populism, and a consensus is already developing around health care, energy and corporate accountability.

There has been talk for years about the rise of a "radical center," made up of voters essentially moderate in their philosophical leanings but radical in their disaffection with the status quo.

This looks to be the year of the radical center. If it is, the Democrats will win. And if they win, their task will be to meet the aspirations of a very diverse group of dissatisfied and disappointed Americans.

[Last modified October 25, 2006, 01:35:19]