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Politics

GOP circled districts with lines, not walls

Voting maps redrawn to the party's advantage may not be enough to retain seats.

By BILL ADAIR
Published October 28, 2006

WASHINGTON - Republicans were supposed to be great mapmakers.

After the 2000 census, Republicans in Florida and other states created new congressional maps to give their party a strategic advantage. By shifting their voters into select House districts, the GOP gained two seats in Florida and at least 10 others around the country.

But with the latest polls showing low approval of President Bush, tremendous discontent with Congress and lots of bitterness about the Iraq war, it appears the Republicans' creative mapmaking won't be enough to stop an expected Democratic tidal wave. Political analysts and redistricting experts say the wave will probably be so large that it will breach some of the most solid Republican districts.

Chuck Todd, editor of the political Web site Hotline, likened the Republican-drawn boundaries to levees in New Orleans. They can withstand a modest storm, but not a Category 5 hurricane like the one forecast for Election Day.

"Waves get too big," he said.

In Florida, Republican mapmakers went to great lengths to protect the party's incumbents. Rep. Clay Shaw, a Fort Lauderdale Republican whose district was prone to close races, was given thousands of additional GOP voters so he would have a more comfortable cushion against a Democratic challenger.

"The Legislature methodically went through Broward and Palm Beach counties and selected communities that were Republican-leaning," said Eric Eikenberg, a senior adviser to Shaw.

The result, he said, "is a 7 to 8 percent Republican advantage compared to what we used to have."

The jigsaw puzzle

Elsewhere in Florida, districts held by Republicans such as Katherine Harris and Mark Foley were drawn like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle to ensure the incumbents' re-election - and provide fertile territory for future Republicans.

But this year, a convergence of factors including the sour mood of voters, well-funded Democratic candidates and the scandal involving Foley's sexual messages to teenagers has jeopardized several GOP seats in Florida, including those held by Shaw and Harris and the one formerly held by Foley.

"We could end up with Republicans losing three seats" in Florida, said Amy Walter, who follows House races for the Cook Political Report.

Analysts also predict Democrats nationwide will gain as many as 35 seats in the House - well above the 15 seats needed to seize control - and might even win the six seats necessary to take over the Senate.

"The bottom line is that where redistricting helped in very tight races in normal elections, it just may not be enough in a big wave year," Walter said.

Michael McDonald, a redistricting expert at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., said the Republican losses would be much greater if the party had not been so effective at redrawing the congressional maps. Instead of facing the loss of 35 seats, they would lose 60 or 70 this year.

Indeed, with the current maps, the wave alone is probably not enough to oust a well-entrenched Republican incumbent. But in seats where the candidate is tangled in a scandal or has a formidable Democratic challenger, as Shaw does in state Sen. Ron Klein of Boca Raton, the wave could make the difference.

'Greedy'

In Pennsylvania and possibly other states, the Republicans could lose seats because they overreached when they changed the maps. Rather than give their incumbents a cushion to protect them from Democrats, the Republicans recarved the state to pick up new GOP seats.

"The Republicans got greedy," said Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Franklin and Marshall College in Pennsylvania.

That strategy worked in the 2004 campaign, when voters weren't so unhappy with Bush and the war. But this year, four Pennsylvania Republicans are vulnerable.

If there's a bright side for Republicans, it is the likelihood that the wave will recede after the Nov. 7 election. If they lose some of their solid seats, they are likely to win back many of them in 2008.

Todd, the Hotline editor, said to keep an eye on whether Nick Lampson, the Texas Democrat expected to win Tom DeLay's Republican seat, decides to buy or rent a home in Washington.

Todd predicts Lampson will be a renter.

Washington bureau chief Bill Adair can be reached at adair@sptimes.com or 202 463-0575.

[Last modified October 28, 2006, 01:40:09]