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U.S. fears Ortega win in Nicaragua

By DAVID ADAMS
Published November 4, 2006

MIAMI - More than 16 years have passed since Nicaraguan leftist revolutionary Daniel Ortega dropped off the United States' list of hemispheric bogeymen.

But with polls showing him as the frontrunner in Sunday's presidential election, alarm bells are ringing again in Washington. In response, the Bush administration is allegedly twisting every arm it can to sabotage Ortega's comeback, breaking with its own recent policy of low-key diplomacy in Latin America.

U.S. ambassador to Nicaragua Paul Trivelli has come under fire for a series of ill-chosen comments about the election, which have fueled the impression of U.S. meddling. U.S. officials also are accused of leaning on local businessmen to support the U.S.-preferred candidate, a Harvard-educated banker.

"It's a shameful spectacle," said Michael Shifter, a Latin America expert at the Inter-American Dialogue, which seeks to foster better understanding of the region. "People are all in a dither about Daniel Ortega. It's just nuts."

Like the Energizer bunny who just keeps running, Ortega, now 61, has refused to fade away over the years. Despite losing a humiliating election in 1990, Ortega remains at the head of the Sandinista National Liberation Front, the former guerrilla army that in 1979 famously toppled the U.S.-backed dictator Anastasio Somoza.

For the next decade, Ortega was Nicaragua's self-styled comandante. With Soviet and Cuban support, the revolutionaries set about creating a Marxist-Leninist state, bringing most economic activity under state control. That didn't sit well with the highly independent peasantry, fueling a civil war with U.S.-backed Contra rebels.

Since losing power in 1990, Ortega has unsuccessfully run for election twice more, claiming to be a reformed democrat.

This may be his last - and best - chance. A recent change in electoral laws means a candidate can avoid a runoff if he takes 35 percent of first-round votes. Ortega is only a whisker from that threshold, leading with 33 percent, eight points ahead of the U.S.-backed candidate, Eduardo Montealegre.

These days Ortega eschews his guerrilla-era thick glasses and fatigues. Instead, he dresses in soft pastels and jeans and uses contacts. He campaigns to John Lennon's Give Peace a Chance. His running mate is a former Contra whose house Ortega confiscated during his revolutionary days - and still lives in.

One former U.S. senior diplomat, Roger Noriega, described Ortega as having "a learning curve as flat as the Kansas plains." In a recent article, "Back by Unpopular Demand," Noriega warned that Ortega's election posed a "devastating" threat to the democratic trend in Central America while stunting free trade and economic growth.

One U.S. congressman wrote to Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, urging the administration to block remittances to Nicaragua, estimated at $850-million a year, if Ortega wins.

What most seems to concern the Bush administration is Ortega's ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Latin America's new, left-wing caudillo, or strongman. But unlike other leftist leaders who flaunt their anti-U.S. ideology, Ortega is more circumspect, saying he hopes to have friendly relations with Washington if elected.

"Ortega's recent statements are very different from what we've heard from Chavez's other friends in the region," said Stephen Johnson, a Latin America expert at the Heritage Foundation.

State Department officials in Washington trot out the official line, saying the administration has no preferred candidate and that only the Nicaraguan people can decide who will lead them.

Thomas Shannon, the State Department's top official for Latin America, has denied that the Bush administration is campaigning against Ortega, saying all the United States seeks to do is promote democracy and open government in the region.

But that hasn't stopped U.S. officials from pressuring wealthy Nicaraguan businessmen not to give money to the Ortega campaign. Adolfo Franco, the director for Latin America at the Agency for International Development, warned that U.S. economic aid would likely be cut if Ortega won.

However, U.S. officials stress they had no role in a recent appearance in Nicaragua by Lt. Col. Oliver North, the former National Security Council official involved in the 1986 Iran-Contra scandal. North outraged the U.S. Embassy by making the trip on behalf of another Ortega opponent, who is almost equally disliked by Washington.

North appeared in a TV spot for rival candidate Jose Rizo, with the White House in the background. Trivelli denounced the spot in Spanish as "paja," the word for straw often used to describe foolish talk. Unfortunately for Trivelli, in Nicaragua paja also means masturbation.

Some critics of U.S. foreign policy warn Washington's words are doing more harm than good.

"The neocons have created an artificial candidate Montealegre which has resulted in a splitting of the non-Sandinista vote which exponentially increases the possibility of Ortega's election," said Henry Howard, a Miami businessman and former special envoy to Nicaragua under President Clinton.

Some experts note that Washington's paranoia over Ortega contrasts sharply with its restrained behavior in recent elections, especially in Mexico this past July.

"In Nicaragua they have forgotten that this is a sovereign country," said Shifter. "Because it's Ortega they just can't resist."

David Adams can be reached at dadams@sptimes.com or (305) 361-6393.

[Last modified November 6, 2006, 17:50:02]