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Politics

GOP strength in Hillsborough bucks state trend

Better organization, more money and control of growing suburbs make for a winning ticket.

By BILL VARIAN
Published November 9, 2006

TAMPA - Despite a national wave of disaffection that translated to big gains Tuesday for the Democrats in Congress, there were few signs of trickle-down politics in Hillsborough County.

Political analysts and some candidates say Hillsborough maintained its bellwether status as an indicator of state political leanings - solidly Republican - if not its national battleground reputation. After all, Democrat Jim Davis lost his home county in his bid for governor by about the same margin he lost the state.

But even Democrats say they faced a powerful GOP grass roots juggernaut fueled by solid control of quickly growing suburbs that will be hard to dislodge.

"You're not just running against a candidate, you're running against a Republican establishment, a Republican machine," said Democrat Hillsborough Commissioner Tom Scott, who failed to unseat fellow board member and Republican Mark Sharpe. "If Democrats want to win, they're going to have to get a lot more organized."

Democrats in Hillsborough still slightly outnumber Republicans. But consider:

- The Hillsborough County Commission, a 6-1 Democratic majority 16 years ago, now has the same GOP supermajority after Tuesday's races.

- Former Hillsborough commissioner and Democrat Phyllis Busansky found herself bulldozed in her own county by Republican state Rep. Gus Bilirakis in the 9th Congressional District race. She fared better in Pasco and Pinellas counties.

- Democrat Stephen Gorham would have won the District 10 state Senate race against Republican Ronda Storms if only the district's vote in Pasco and Polk counties counted. But Storms' deep support in Hillsborough gave her the win.

- And Republican District 16 state Senate hopeful Kim Berfield would have won easily had only votes from the part of the district in northwest Hillsborough County and South Tampa counted. Democrat Charlie Justice won on the strength of his support in Pinellas.

"Even with the battleground description, you've got to scratch your head and say there really isn't much of a battle here," said University of Tampa associate professor of government and communications Scott Paine. "You have an increasingly Republican unincorporated area and an urban core that can produce Republicans and Democrats and probably still leans Democratic."

And everywhere in the weeks leading up to Tuesday's general election there were Republican volunteers making phone calls, licking stamps, waving signs and knocking on doors.

Hillsborough County Republican Executive Committee chairman David Storck said his party had 10,000 volunteers who set aside any differences from the contentious party primaries for a common cause. The party dominated the money race, too.

"We don't have a machine," Storck said. "We just have a real ability to focus on individual candidates."

Storck said another difference in Hillsborough, and Florida in general, is that candidates were forced to deal with many issues beyond the Iraq war, such as rising property insurance bills and skyrocketing property taxes.

"It seems like there weren't too many of the national-level issues that rippled down to Hillsborough County," said J. Edwin Benton, a professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida.

More than twice as many people voted in the commission race in District 4, with heavily Republican suburban precincts, than voted in the District 3 race in more heavily Democratic central and east Tampa. Those suburban voters even bested the usually high turnout of precincts in South and West Tampa. Part of that is likely a result of suburban population growth.

Hillsborough County Democratic Executive Committee chairwoman Janee Murphy said in many races, outgunned Democrats faced well-funded Republicans, and turnout was low, but new Democratic clubs and caucuses organized neighborhood walks, phone banks and letter-writing campaigns on a level not seen in recently.

She cited the performance of Gorham, 28, a political newcomer who narrowly lost to Storms in the District 10 state Senate contest.

"I think we did an absolutely wonderful job with having a machine on the ground," Murphy said. "We've come a long way."

[Last modified November 9, 2006, 01:09:39]