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Officials think Castro is dying

By ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published November 13, 2006

WASHINGTON - The government believes that Fidel Castro's health is deteriorating and that the Cuban dictator is unlikely to live through 2007, the Associated Press reported Sunday, citing unnamed U.S. government officials.

That view was reinforced last week when Cuba's foreign minister, Felipe Perez Roque, backed away from his prediction that Castro would return to power by early December.

The U.S. officials said there is still some mystery about Castro's diagnosis, his treatment and how he is responding. But these officials believe that Castro, 80, has terminal cancer of the stomach, colon or pancreas.

He was seen weakened and thinner in official state photos released late last month, and it is considered unlikely that he will return to power or survive through the end of next year, said the U.S. government and defense officials. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the sensitive topic.

With chemotherapy, Castro may live up to 18 months, the defense official said. Without it, expected survival would drop to three months to eight months.

American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to Castro's health. But U.S. spy agencies include physicians who study pictures, video, public statements and other information coming out of Cuba.

The CIA's Office of Medical Services, for example, studies hair and other biological samples for hints about world leaders' health and how that could affect their official duties.

Castro temporarily ceded power to his brother, Raul, at the end of July just before the government announced that the president was having intestinal surgery.

[Last modified November 13, 2006, 01:15:22]