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With Fidel Castro fading from view, what's really next for the island?

By DAVID ADAMS
Published November 21, 2006

Mercedes Cespedes Al Mira washes clothing on the balcony of her apartment in Havana this summer, in a nation where even soap is rationed.
	[Times photo]

ADVERTISEMENT [AP] Cuban President Fidel Castro addresses tens of thousands in Bayamo, Cuba, on July 26.

Cuban leader Fidel Castro underwent major abdominal surgery in late July and announced he was temporarily turning power over to his brother Raul Castro, head of the armed forces. Fidel Castro has been seen several times since, but only in photos and videos, leading to rampant speculation about his health and the future of the secretive island nation.

How sick is Castro?

No one knows for sure. Castro's health is a well-kept state secret. The most recent video of him released late last month shows him looking surprisingly emaciated. U.S. officials suspect he has cancer and will never return to power.

"There's no recovery. He's terminal," says Brian Latell, the CIA's former Cuba analyst. Latell and others say Castro likely has 3 to 18 months to live, but it's unclear when his condition was diagnosed.

Cuban officials insist Castro is making a slow recovery, but they have backed off Castro's prediction that he would resume his duties by early December.

Who's in charge right now?

Castro left the top job officially known as the first secretary of the Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party to his brother Raul. Other positions he held were distributed to a group of prominent old guard communists and younger party officials. These include senior Politburo member Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Jorge Perez Roque.

What do Cubans think of Raul?

Cubans have no great affection for Raul. Even many of those who oppose Fidel Castro have a grudging admiration for his political astuteness. But that does not apply to Raul, who is considered a less sophisticated ideologue and more of an instrument of repression.

However, he is respected within the security apparatus where he is credited with inspiring a strong culture of unity and loyalty. He implemented important reforms after the loss of Soviet aid in the 1990s.

When Castro dies will there be a mass exodus?

This is one of the U.S. government's biggest fears - a flotilla of rafters bound for South Florida. That's why the U.S. Coast Guard is in a permanent state of readiness to deal with any mass migration.

What about a popular uprising?

Unlikely. It's worth recalling that the streets remained extremely calm in August when Castro announced he was stepping down temporarily.

The number of police on the streets increased somewhat then, but after Castro dies a far greater security presence is likely, deterring any demonstrations.

Might the military seize power?

There's no need for military officials to. They already wield enormous power because they control many of the most productive sectors of the economy. This stems from their role during the dire, so-called "Special Period" after the cutoff of Soviet aid in 1990.

To pull Cuba through, the military took over key economic areas, including agriculture and tourism, and active or former military officers now hold many of the most lucrative jobs.

What is the state of U.S.-Cuban relations?

Relations are dismal and have deteriorated since 2000 under the Bush administration. There is some expectation that relations might improve after Castro's death, especially with Congress now under the control of the Democratic Party.

The Democrats are expected to push some initiatives to soften the U.S. economic embargo that was tightened in 2004. That may include relaxing travel restrictions for Cuban-Americans visiting relatives on the island, as well as regulations for academic exchanges and trade in food and medical goods.

Who would the United States like to see in charge?

Anyone except the Castro brothers. This is actually written into legislation regarding U.S. conditions for lifting the 44-year-old embargo. The law requires that both Castro brothers be out of power, as well as the release of all political prisoners and the holding of democratic elections, before the United States would lift its sanctions.

What does Cuba's economic situation look like?

Despite the U.S. embargo, it actually has improved in the last couple of years. But it's still pretty awful.

Most Cubans survive on salaries of $10 to $15 a month. All essential goods are rationed, from flour and cooking oil to shampoo and soap.

Huge numbers of Cubans have been laid off from inefficient state enterprises in recent years, but continue to receive their salaries. This creates a major drag on the economy. Private business is banned, denying Cubans the chance to create jobs themselves.

So what keeps the island's economy afloat?

Many rely on cash remittances from relatives abroad. This is the source of major frustration on the island, creating an unfair, dual economy of those with access to dollars (or euros), and those without.

New commercial ties with Venezuela, China and Iran have helped. Cuba receives 100,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil a day at highly discounted prices, reselling what it doesn't use on the open market.

Cuba's nickel industry has benefited from rising commodity prices.

Cuba's domestic oil production has risen to about 80,000 barrels a day, according to the Center for Hemispheric Policy, a left-leaning Washington think tank. It hopes to increase production by drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

David Adams can be reached at dadams@sptimes.com or (305)361-6393.

[Last modified November 21, 2006, 00:16:57]