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10 to watch in 2007

By TImes staff writer
Published December 31, 2006

Melinda Gates

Over the past 12 years, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has dispensed some $8-billion to battle diseases such as AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis as well as to promote education in the United States. The money, of course, flowed from Bill Gates' Microsoft success, but the animating spirit of the foundation is every bit Melinda's as well.

With her substantial intellect (she double-majored in economics and computer science at Duke) and a natural tendency toward self-effacement, Melinda Gates, 42, has mastered the science crucial to the foundation's success and found just the right collaborative tone necessary to avoid political missteps abroad. And while she and Bill travel together as much as possible, more often than not it is Melinda who logs the thousands of air miles to visit aid recipients in Asia and Africa. Think of her as Princess Di with an MBA.

Meanwhile the gifts keep coming, and with them ever higher expectations.

This summer, Warren Buffett pledged $30-billion to the Gates Foundation. The first installment of $1.6-billion effectively doubles the amount of money the foundation can spend this year. With that kind of money it might be tempting to make grand promises - a vaccine for HIV, eradicate malaria - but Melinda Gates is too humble for self-aggrandizement and too practical to oversell.

She is defining the new philanthropy and America's role in the world.

Raul Castro

Fidel Castro once reassured his supporters that his death would not mean the end of the revolution. "Behind me are others more radical than I," he said in 1997. He was referring in large part to his younger brother Raul, who adopted socialism first and was responsible for introducing Fidel to Che Guevara.

Fidel is gravely ill, and he hasn't been seen in public since he stepped aside in July. But the question on everyone's mind is whether 2007 will be the year Fidel dies and we find out just how radical Raul will be.

Raul's extremely low profile has been construed as proof of his sinister power (he is legendary for the executions of Batista's soldiers) as well as of his inability to command the stage - and the people's loyalty - like his charismatic brother.

But Raul, 75, was also the engineer of Cuba's surprising survival after the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving the country nearly penniless. Some say Raul will keep pushing Cuba toward a China model, relaxing markets without letting go altogether of state control.

Raul's recent performance at the birthday celebration for his brother cheered many for his even-tempered - and brief - speech that lacked Fidel's standard anti-U.S. rhetoric.

He's not a shouter, and that might make it easier to hear him.

Robert Gates and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Alex Sink

The newly elected chief financial officer and retired banker from Thonatosassa can resuscitate the Florida Democratic Party in 2007 if she doesn't get so bogged down in the administrative details of her job she forgets that, as far as her political party is concerned, CFO stands for "Chief Fundraising Official."

This could be a challenge for Sink, who genuinely likes the financial minutiae of the job and who campaigned on a promise to watch over the state's purse as a nonpartisan.

Yet as the state's top Democrat, and the only one to snatch a statewide elective office from the GOP, Sink has to lead the efforts to heal what has been a fractured and lethargic state party if Florida Democrats want to do their part in keeping Congress in the hands of their party.

And Sink has to do it while solving the state's property casualty insurance crisis. If she fails on either front, she risks serious damage to her chances of eventually launching herself into the Governor's Mansion or beyond. Some wonder if she can do it.

But then, the former bank president with the Southern drawl has always enjoyed being underestimated.

Barack Obama

Yes, yes, yes, it could all just be hype.

It is entirely possible that Barack Obama, the electric Democratic senator from Illinois, does not have an answer to the vicious partisanship that has replaced American politics.

It's quite possible he won't even run for his party's nomination for president.

Still, his attributes are too great, his potential for growth too tall, not to expect 2007 to be a breakout year for the 45-year-old politician. His willingness to imagine a social and political landscape beyond the baby boomer generation - universal health care, religious faith in public life without the sharp elbows - is a bold enough stroke to capture the imagination.

Even if his vision doesn't come exactly true.

It is no small thing to have attracted the enthusiasm of such disparate national icons as Oprah Winfrey and Warren Buffett.

The question of the coming year will be whether Obama is seasoned enough after just two years in the U.S. Senate to launch a meaningful campaign for national office. No doubt he has everyone's attention while he ponders it.

Lord Voldemort

He once was He Who Must Not Be Named, but now that a brave boy wizard has faced him twice and lived, we may call him by the most chilling of his names: Lord Voldemort.

We'll certainly see the re-embodied evil wizard this year in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, the fifth film in the series based on J.K. Rowling's enormously popular books. The movie will be released July 13, with a snaky Ralph Fiennes again bringing Voldemort to life.

But the pressing question is whether we'll read about the final confrontation between Voldemort and Harry this year. Rowling has announced the title of the seventh and last book, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, but no publication date has been set. We do know one thing: Millions will read it holding their breaths.

And whether Voldemort triumphs or falls, he has been at least a compelling distraction from the evil in the real world, and at best a way to better understand it.

Bruce Allen

Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans are growing more impatient with each loss.

That means Bruce Allen, the general manager, has to attempt to fix the current mess after a disappointing season that will end with the team posting one of the worst win-loss records in its 31 seasons. But he has the tools to do it - primarily $25-million to $30-million in salary-cap space.

That will allow the Bucs to compete for top free agents who could help turn the team's fortunes.

The Bucs also will have a particularly high pick in April's college draft, giving them a chance to land a player with a big-time future. But there are no guarantees. Sometimes players don't produce after signing rich contracts. Others don't pan out because injuries take an unforeseen toll.

Unfortunately for Allen, the margin for error is small. He and coach Jon Gruden have been under fire for months and their prior missteps in picking personnel mean they'll be under particular scrutiny this offseason.

Lindsay Lohan

You can catch the next couple of waves in Web technology and celebrity culture by watching Lindsay Lohan.

In 2006, her name was mentioned in the same (deep) breath as smoking, drinking, anorexia, drug use, lousy work habits and Britney Spears. Every slip of her blouse, every boozy night, was chronicled on sites such as TMZ.com, where celeb-obsessed fans are both pushers and users.

Seeing all this, you could almost forget that Lohan is talented. Her performance in A Prairie Home Companion got raves, and in 2007 she'll be in four substantial films, including a contemporary take on Cyrano de Bergerac. So long, Parent Trap.

We'll follow Lohan, 20, to see her grow as an actor, sure, but mostly we'll watch because everyone else will be watching. Who knows what technology will emerge to simultaneously humiliate her and enlarge her fame? X-ray cell phones? ShrewTube? Insidelohansbrain.com? By watching Lohan we'll learn about the new world.

They might not get much closer than a time zone from each other, but their futures may be inextricably entwined.

Two weeks ago Robert Gates took charge of the Pentagon and thereby the crisis in Iraq. The equation is clear: If Donald Rumsfeld broke it, then Gates must fix it. An impatient American public will not tolerate for very long Gates' assessment that we are neither winning nor losing the war.

Whether Gates succeeds will depend on things he can control - how smartly he implements inevitable policy changes. And it will depend, too, on those things he cannot control - namely, diplomatic initiatives to Syria and Iran so much in vogue thanks to the Iraq Study Group.

One of the men across the table, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran, is an unrepentant Holocaust denier, unrequited pen pal and undeterred nuclear power wannabe. Not so promising.

Iran has real influence in Iraq. Ahmadinejad's government - and the religious leaders who control it - are playing a role in the power struggle that may result in the ouster of Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq's Shiite prime minister. Maliki is closely allied to the ferociously anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who also happens to lead the largest Shiite militia. But Sadr is not the favorite of Tehran.

And therein lies some measure of hope for Gates and the United States. If Ahmadinejad thinks a stable Iraq is more important to Iran than fomenting chaos to embarrass the United States, then this member of the Axis of Evil might also be the pivot point upon which the exit strategy turns.

Blame the hurricanes, the politicians or the price of living in paradise.

Florida homeowners will be in for the fight of their lives in 2007, and it won't be pretty.

If the property taxes don't get you, the property insurance will. And the number of mortgage foreclosures keeps rising.

As of December, more than a third of the 4.3-million homesteaded properties in Florida were insured by state-run Citizens Property Insurance, a company that isn't supposed to exist except in a crisis. At the current rate, Citizens will insure half the homes in Florida by the middle of '07.

If the private insurance companies aren't leaving the state, they're telling us to harden our homes. But there's no guarantee you'll get a discount on your premium if you do.

Want to move elsewhere in the state to escape the insurance rates? That could cost even more. The housing market has screeched to a halt, in large part because sellers lose their homestead exemption for a year and have to be reassessed at what is now a far higher rate.

And then there is the lack of one of the main things that lured people to Florida in the first place - affordable housing. How bad is it? They built dormitories in Key West to house the people who work in the restaurants, hotels and shops.

Help could come from Tallahassee. Or for some, from a moving van headed north.

You can catch the next couple of waves in Web technology and celebrity culture by watching Lindsay Lohan.

In 2006, her name was mentioned in the same (deep) breath as smoking, drinking, anorexia, drug use, lousy work habits and Britney Spears. Every slip of her blouse, every boozy night, was chronicled on sites such as TMZ.com, where celeb-obsessed fans are both pushers and users.

Seeing all this, you could almost forget that Lohan is talented. Her performance in A Prairie Home Companion got raves, and in 2007 she'll be in four substantial films, including a contemporary take on Cyrano de Bergerac. So long, Parent Trap.

We'll follow Lohan, 20, to see her grow as an actor, sure, but mostly we'll watch because everyone else will be watching. Who knows what technology will emerge to simultaneously humiliate her and enlarge her fame? X-ray cell phones? ShrewTube? Insidelohansbrain.com? By watching Lohan we'll learn about the new world.

[Last modified December 31, 2006, 06:52:52]