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Why wide interests seek a stable Somalia

Is the fighting over?

Probably not. Somali and Ethiopian troops battled about 600 militiamen in the southern part of the country on Thursday - with U.S. Navy forces cutting off escape routes by sea - and the militias have vowed to launch an Iraq-like guerrilla war. But Islamic leaders say they are willing to talk to the government about sharing power. Foreign Islamic radicals are believed to have come to Somalia to fight on behalf of the Islamic movement. The Somali warlords are also back in Mogadishu, and some are re-establishing militias.

What is the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia?

It was formed in 2004 after two years of talks in Kenya between clan leaders, and encompasses five major clan groups and dozens of factions, each a potential spoiler capable of extreme violence. But its first 18 months were spent squabbling about where to set up its base. Seats in the Parliament and in the Cabinet are assigned based on clan. The government is recognized by the United Nations but has had little military strength.

What is the Council of Islamic Courts (UIC)?

Without a government, Somalis turned to religious leaders to resolve disputes according to Islamic law. One of those leaders, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, is a fundamentalist who has wanted an Islamic government for Somalia for decades. He and other council leaders are accused by the U.S. government of having ties to al-Qaida, including involvement in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in East Africa. Aweys united small courts across the country to form the council and transform it into a military force.

Who supports them?

The UIC gained popular support by disarming warring militias and bringing calm to Mogadishu's lawless streets. Where the UIC militia has obtained its substantial weaponry and financing is unclear. Some have pointed toward Saudi Arabia and others to wealthy foreign supporters of Islamic militancy. Ethiopia's rival, Eritrea, is also accused.

Why were the Islamic fighters defeated so quickly and where are they now?

Ethiopia sent at least 4,000 troops into Mogadishu on Dec. 24. Using artillery and fighter jets, they pushed back the Islamic militiamen, many of whom deserted after a few hours of the artillery barrages. The UIC is reportedly split between hard-core fundamentalists and moderates who were ready for peace talks after the first battles. Somalian officials said Thursday that about 3,500 Islamic militants are hiding in and around Mogadishu.

Why did Ethiopia decide to intervene?

Ethiopia, which has fought two wars with Somalia, keeps a close eye on its eastern neighbor. It became alarmed as the UIC rapidly extended its influence to central and southern Somalia and imposed sharia law. Ethiopia shares Western concerns about the spread of fundamentalist Islam in Africa and suspected links to al-Qaida.

What's next?

The United Nations, the United States, the European Union and the African Union all say the government needs urgent help. More than 500,000 people have been left homeless by the worst flooding in 50 years and hundreds of thousands more depend on food aid even in the best of times. Kenya is limiting entry of refugees, afraid of allowing in Islamic fighters.

Islamic militias no longer control most of southern Somalia, giving the country its best chance in 15 years to end anarchy and establish an effective government. Here's a chance to catch up on what has happened, and what's next.

[Last modified January 5, 2007, 01:13:51]