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Home permits lowest in 4 years

The residential sector's slump doesn't surprise anyone, but some think its end is coming.

By CHUIN-WEI YAP
Published January 20, 2007

Pasco's residential market wrapped the year with the lowest number of single-family home permits issued since 2002.

The county sent out 4,723 permits in the benchmark category in 2006, compared with 7,252 the previous year, according to figures released this week by the county's central permitting division.

The dismal news hardly surprised industry watchers, coming after months of a home building slowdown.

The pace of development has brought Pasco to a level that preceded the boom years from 2002 to 2005, and most don't expect Pasco to come out of the woods this year.

"Everything I'm hearing is that for the rest of the year, and maybe more than that, things will be slow," said County Administrator John Gallagher. "Then it will pick up."

But commercial construction is picking up the slack, jumping 11 times in value between 2005 and 2006.

Realtors such as Tom Stephan of Realty Options in New Port Richey point out that sky-high insurance rates would remain a drag on the market for younger would-be buyers.

Still, Stephan said he's seeing more browsers in subdivisions such as Longleaf and Waters Edge these days, compared to mid 2006.

But it's an uphill slog for the industry.

Inventory in Pasco is still growing and stands at 25,379, compared with just 9,088 this time last year, though there are signs that median home prices are inching up, according to the real estate agency Home Discovery.

This means builders are still trying to shift existing unsold homes off their shelves, and some say the slowdown cannot be regarded to have bottomed out until the level of inventory goes into a sustained decline.

But others are betting on signs that home values are inching up again.

The Streck family has scheduled several large-scale projects to come out of the ground in late 2007 and early 2008, believing that's when a full resurgence will occur. Their projects include the 258-acre Valley Oaks and 243-acre Triple J Ranch in the Zephyrhills area, as well a 238-home, 100-acre project in Land O'Lakes called Lake Talia.

"We think the market will be even for the first part of 2007 and then start to rise," said F. Carl Streck. "The great thing about Pasco County is that you can still buy homes at an affordable price."

Number of single-family home permits issued, year by year:

2000: 2,931

2001: 3,860

2002: 4,786

2003: 5,883

2004: 6,300

2005: 7,252

2006: 4,723

Source: Pasco County Central Permitting

[Last modified January 20, 2007, 07:35:12]