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Politics

Bush energy plan hangs on making more biofuel

It depends on biofuel's unproven "Holy Grail . "

By DAVID ADAMS
Published January 25, 2007

MIAMI - President Bush finally said it.

He may not have referred to "global warming" in his State of the Union address Tuesday night, but his choice to use the words "global climate change" was a first for this White House.

Energy experts and industry executives widely welcomed Bush's plan to reduce gasoline usage by 20 percent over the next decade.

If he is really serious about reaching that "20 in 10" goal, however, experts say the country may have its work cut out for it.

Bush's plan rests largely on raising alternative biofuel production - ethanol and biodiesel - to 35-billion gallons by 2017. That's a massive sevenfold increase from ethanol's current level of around 5-billion gallons.

The president also called for greater use of wind and solar energy, expanded use of clean diesel vehicles and accelerated research into the batteries needed for "plug-in hybrid" vehicles.

He offered few specifics, though, and made no mention of increasingly popular "green building" practices that experts argue can save large amounts of energy.

Cellulosic technology

While ethanol production from corn has been growing like gangbusters of late in the Midwest, it can't meet this giant leap in production, producers warn. In fact, corn won't get us beyond 15-billion gallons, they say.

That's why, for the second year running, Bush threw out the words "cellulosic ethanol." To most people that may sound like scientific gobbledygook, but to biofuels experts it's the Holy Grail.

The president is banking on cellulosic ethanol's still unproven technology as the solution to his biofuels gamble.

This new technology uses enzymes or bacteria to produce ethanol from a wide variety of plant fibers. This enormously increases the diversity of available feedstock for making ethanol. Scientists say it could be a bonanza for Florida, which does not grow corn but could produce other suitable feedstock such as switchgrass or sorghum, as well as forest residue.

It's still not ready for commercial use, though biofuels experts are confident that the industry is close to cracking the code for cellulosic technology, which is currently twice as expensive to produce as ethanol made from corn.

Three major companies - Abengoa Bioenergy, Iogen and Broin - are working on pilot programs in Nebraska, Idaho and Illinois.

Abengoa recently teamed up with Dyadic, a Florida company specializing in commercial use of enzymes.

"It's a proven concept," said Mark Emalfarb, president of Dyadic, who has worked closely with the Scripps Research Institute in Jupiter. "It's not about the science anymore, it's about economics and which enzyme breaks down which plant fiber, and how effectively."

The potential of cellulosic ethanol has attracted interest from researchers at the University of Florida, as well as venture capitalists and even some major oil companies.

"If this didn't make economic sense I would be investing somewhere else," said Vinod Khosla, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems who has invested heavily in several ethanol start-ups.

Skeptics question whether the president's speech will give cellulosic ethanol the boost it needs. Any shortfall could be made up in foreign imports, according to Bush. This is an idea that appears to feed off an ethanol import strategy advocated by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

The president's plan includes $2-billion in loan guarantees for construction of cellulosic ethanol plants. A further $1.6-billion is reserved for alternative energy projects.

Funds for 'clean coal'

That money dwarfs in comparison to funds he announced for increased research into nonrenewable energy sources. On Tuesday the president proposed giving $650-million in tax credits for producers of "clean coal." Coal is a major emissions offender.

Bush also said he planned to double the capacity of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the nation's stockpile of oil, at a potential cost of $38-billion.

"That's real money," said Carol Werner, director of the Environmental and Energy Study Institute in Washington D.C. "Why aren't we investing that kind of money on the renewable side?"

Electric car advocates, many of whom also back plug-in hybrids powered by a mix of gasoline and electricity, are disappointed the president had so little to say in his speech about what they maintain is the cleanest and cheapest fuel technology.

Bush's speech was "nowhere near as forceful as a year ago when he said 'America is addicted to foreign oil,' " said Sherry Boschert, a San Francisco journalist and author of Plug-In Hybrids. The Cars that will Recharge America.

"The government isn't doing anything to make car companies do anything different," she told students at Florida International University, where she delivered a lecture Wednesday.

While Bush speaks of raising fuel economy standards for the auto industry, it is unclear how far he is prepared to go. Technology already exists to build fuel efficient electric-hybrid cars, said Boschert. "It's not rocket science; it's just not the way we have been doing things."

[Last modified January 25, 2007, 05:46:37]