Columns

Firing worked for Bucs, Dungy

He has ridden in a parade through downtown Indianapolis. Here in Tampa Bay, we would have preferred for the route to include Dale Mabry Highway.

By GARY SHELTON
Published February 11, 2007

He has ridden in a parade through downtown Indianapolis. Here in Tampa Bay, we would have preferred for the route to include Dale Mabry Highway.

He is going to the White House. Here in Tampa Bay, we are willing to vote for him to move in.

He has gone to Disney World. Here in Tampa Bay, we are goofy for the guy all over again.

Yep, a lot of people have spent the past week feeling very good for Tony Dungy. If the affection grows any more, we will name roads for him, teach his name in schools and put his face on money. Any time he wants to leave Elba and come home, you get the feeling it's all right with Tampa Bay.

But what if he had never left?

Would everyone be quite as happy then?

In sports, nothing makes you look smarter than the scoreboard. And so Dungy looks to have been on the right path all along, and by comparison, the Bucs look lost. Compared to his calm, his old team looks reactionary. Compared to his trophy, the 4-12 season looks like a skin rash.

Ah, but if Dungy had stayed, would the bad years have been better?

And while we're asking, would the good years have been worse?

When you compare the rekindled admiration to the gnashing of teeth that preceded Dungy's departure, these are legitimate questions.

Don't get me wrong. I think it's terrific that Tampa Bay appreciates Dungy, and as you might have noticed, I've spilled a considerable amount of ink in praising him myself. When you consider the Bucs were eliminated shortly after Labor Day, no one should have to apologize for feeling good for a good guy.

But what if?

What if the Glazers had stayed the course after the 2001 season? What if they remained patient despite looking silly in Philly? What if they made a paper airplane out of that Bill Parcells contract and sailed it out the window?

Would the Bucs have won the Super Bowl in 2002? Or since?

That's the money question, isn't it? Even though three of the past four seasons by the Bucs have been lousy, and even though it's hard to see that kind of collapse under Dungy, no one should be willing to throw away a Super Bowl trophy for more seasons in the early rounds of the playoffs. Agreed?

The Kansas City-St. Louis example bears repeating. In the '90s, the Chiefs made the playoffs seven times and the Rams had nine losing seasons. The Rams, however, won a Super Bowl. Edge: Rams. Being great once is better than being very good most of the time.

So what if?

In the feel-good moment of the present, it's easy to miss Dungy. It's easy to suggest that if he were here, the traded draft picks might have turned into players and the front office wars might not have happened and John Lynch would still get his mail here.

If you are to argue that sticking with Dungy was a better choice, you have to believe he would have not only won a Super Bowl, but would have avoided the collapse afterward. Yes, it's possible. No, it's not probable.

Would Dungy have won 12 regular-season games to earn a playoff bye in '02? Remember: Dungy never won that many here largely because his team started 3-4 in each of his last four years.

Would the offense have found its rhythm the way it did in the postseason of '02, when the Bucs averaged more than 35 points? Remember: In six playoff games, Dungy's offensive staff averaged less than 10.

Would the Bucs have been able to win a playoff game in Philadelphia? Remember the way Dungy's last two playoff losses made Veterans Stadium feel like a tomb?

Would Dungy have won the Super Bowl? Perhaps because the Bucs were still a defensive team, but it was Gruden who took the mystery out of the Raiders offense.

When it comes to the Gruden-Dungy debates, I've always been a moderate. In the aftermath of another losing season, a guy could get arrested for suggesting anything positive about the Gruden era, but I've always thought it took both men, fire and ice, for Tampa Bay to win. Both deserve credit. Why is that so hard?

Then there is this: If Dungy had not won the Super Bowl in '02, would he have made it to '03? To '04? The Glazers weren't going to be patient for long. At least not back then.

Whenever Dungy was fired, he would have been snapped up by another team. A year or two later, odds are it wouldn't have been the Colts. Which means no Manning, no Harrison, no Freeney.

Here's the point: Most of the time, things work out for the best. Dungy will tell you that. Tampa Bay has a trophy, and Dungy felt good about it, and Dungy has a trophy, and Tampa Bay feels good about that. Circumstance has made us into distant relatives, closer from afar.

Alas, feeling good is going to have to be good enough for everyone.

Until one side or the other wins its next one, of course.

Gary Shelton can be reached at (727) 893-8805.

[Last modified February 10, 2007, 23:19:54]