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Best plan: fall debate, earlier primary

As states maneuver for maximum influence in the 2008 presidential election, Florida can better position itself without acting recklessly. The state Republican Party has prudently abandoned talk of a meaningless straw poll this fall and instead scheduled a more significant debate between GOP candidates that will draw national attention. Legislators should show similar restraint by moving the Florida primary from March into early February - but no earlier.

The primary election calendar is a mess, with states climbing over each other in desperate attempts to have some influence over the selection of the party nominees. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14, with the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary the following week. Nevada and South Carolina also are squeezing in before February. No wonder candidates already are in full campaign mode, hiring staffs and raising more than $1-million a week.

The desire by some Florida Republicans to jump in front of the line with an October straw poll, which would have been the fourth such poll since 1980, was understandable. Straw polls bring the national spotlight for about five minutes, and a well-organized candidate (say former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, for instance) can get a little bump against a better-known front-runner (say Arizona Sen. John McCain). Activists like straw polls because they are showered with attention, but mainstream voters are left out and candidates can make better use of their time and money.

Moving up the Florida primary to Feb. 5 makes more sense. For all of the nostalgia about Iowa and New Hampshire, those states do not reflect this state's diversity and aren't as dramatically affected by issues such as Social Security and immigration. South Carolina Republicans have proven to be more socially conservative and effective at knocking out the most moderate candidates. There is no logical reason why Florida should not have an opportunity to make its primary votes count for something.

Moving the primary to Feb. 5 could give Florida some influence, although the odds aren't good. California, Illinois and New York are among the states eyeing the same date. That would effectively create a national primary with television-driven campaigns that only the best-financed candidates could mount. But moving the Florida primary to January would only make a bad situation worse, anger national party leaders and trigger a reaction from the early voting states.

The best solution, a series of regional primaries that would rotate between elections, remains out of reach for 2008. A fall debate and a February primary would be the most responsible course for Florida.

[Last modified February 21, 2007, 23:40:03]