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Film

Oscar drops few clues about this year's winners

But here's a tip: Don't count on conventional wisdom when it comes to making your predictions. Not every best actress is younger than 40.

By STEVE PERSALL
Published February 25, 2007

The only thing the Academy Awards can guarantee us about tonight's show at the Kodak Theater is that movie fans on the East Coast will get to bed late.

Almost everything else is anybody's guess.

Many of the usual signposts leading to correct predictions are turned around, or at least thrown into question, this year. That said, here's my first prediction: This year will be the exception to several so-called rules:

RULE NO. 1: The movie with the most nominations is a best picture favorite. Dreamgirls has eight but is the first nominations leader not to get a best picture nod.

RULE NO. 2: Acting contenders don't have a chance if theirs is a film's only nomination. (Tell that to Forest Whitaker, star of The Last King of Scotland, and virtually everyone's pick as best actor.)

RULE NO. 3: Best actress winners generally are too young for AARP. (See: Helen Mirren.)

RULE NO. 4: Martin Scorsese isn't allowed to win a best director Oscar. (Seems like a no-brainer, but you never know . . .)

RULE NO. 5: The Oscars telecast is padded to imperfection with needless musical numbers and the stubborn notion that every winner deserves equal face time. (Okay, that rule won't be broken.)

Nor will this one: Much as I think I know, I'm going to get at least some of my predictions wrong. With that cheery thought in mind, here are my picks:

Best picture

Tonight's final telecast hour will be boring as Burbank unless the academy pulls off a shocker. It won't happen in the lead acting, directing and screenplay races. My guess is that voters will settle for something not so global as Babel, or so noble as The Queen or Letters from Iwo Jima, or so gritty as The Departed.

There she is: Little Miss Sunshine.

Best actor

Forest Whitaker's ferocious turn as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin swept all major awards, except among deadlocked Los Angeles film critics. They were split between Whitaker and Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), who isn't nominated tonight. Whitaker's only worry is coming up with a better acceptance speech than his bashful ramblings at previous awards shows.

Best actress

Helen Mirren (The Queen) is the smart pick with awards momentum rivaling Whitaker's. One caveat: The most recent best actress Oscar winner older than age 50 was Jessica Tandy (Driving Miss Daisy) back in 1989. Mirren is 60 yet sexy enough (expertly concealed as prim Queen Elizabeth II) to hold off Penelope Cruz and Kate Winslet.

Supporting actor

Here's an Oscar payback I can get behind: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) will finally win the Oscar he has deserved for 40 years since Wait Until Dark and The Heart is a Lonely Hunter. Eddie Murphy was terrific in Dreamgirls and is favored here, but I'll take the miss if necessary.

Supporting actress

Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) had this one sewn up before belting the final notes of And I'm Telling You I'm Not Going.

Director

The master of mob mayhem Martin Scorsese (The Departed) will finally get the Oscar he deserves after five fruitless nominations - or else.

Original screenplay

Comedies typically get more credit in this category than any other. Little Miss Sunshine recently copped the prize at the Writers Guild of America awards, so that's that.

Adapted screenplay

The Departed, based on the 2002 Hong Kong thriller Infernal Affairs, won the Writers Guild competition and will repeat here.

Foreign language film

Six nominations for Mexico's entry Pan's Labyrinth make it a lock for this Oscar.

Animated feature

Disney-Pixar's box office hit Cars beats the Happy Feet penguins in a photo finish.

Cinematography

The memorable grimness of Children of Men should earn Emmanuel Lubezki an Oscar to match his recent American Society of Cinematographers award.

Film editing

A toss-up between Babel and The Departed. Both have best picture nominations, and history shows that's crucial to winning this prize. I'll go with Babel's revelatory shuffling of four stories around the world.

Art direction

Hudson and Murphy were the only actors who weren't upstaged by Dreamgirls' gorgeous set designs.

Costume design

Curse of the Golden Flower is the most extravagantly dressed nominee. The devil may wear Prada, but Oscar is being fitted for Tang dynasty silks.

Makeup

Pan's Labyrinth wins for three reasons: The fantasy elements were spectacular, graying Adam Sandler's hair in Click is no big deal, and nobody wants to give Mel Gibson's Apocalypto anything this year, given his phenomenally bad behavior.

Original score

Gustavo Santaolalla created a universal language with his mournful score for Babel. He'll win his second consecutive Oscar (Brokeback Mountain) and add to tonight's celebration of Latin creativity.

Original song

The Dreamgirls trio of nominees will split votes, leaving Melissa Etheridge to join the list of rocking Oscar winners with I Need to Wake Up from An Inconvenient Truth.

Documentary

Speaking of An Inconvenient Truth, does anyone think Hollywood will skip a chance to give former vice president Al Gore a standing ovation for his environmental efforts?

Documentary short

Haven't seen any of the nominees, but Two Hands - a profile of pianist Leon Fleisher's battle against a rare, debilitating disease - sounds inspiring enough.

Visual effects

Yo-ho-hum. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest salvages the booty from a sunken ship (Poseidon) and a sinking franchise (Superman Returns).

Sound editing

Blood Diamond deserves something from its five nominations. This one sounds right.

Sound mixing

Musicals are near-cinches in this category. Dreamgirls was easier on the ears than the war and dismemberments offered by the other nominees.

Live action short film

West Bank Story, a musical replacing Jets and Sharks with Israelis and Palestinians, should be irresistible to academy voters.

Animated short film

No Time For Nuts is a spin-off from the highly profitable Ice Age movies, featuring the prehistoric rodent Scrat fiddling with a time machine. Box office trumps everything in Hollywood.

Steve Persall can be reached at (727) 893-8365 or persall@sptimes.com.

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The Oscars on TV

The 79th Academy Awards air live tonight at 8 p.m. on WFTS-Ch. 28.

Red carpet coverage begins at 6 p.m. on E! Catch Joan and Melissa Rivers at 6 p.m. on the TV Guide Channel.

[Last modified February 25, 2007, 05:41:37]