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Feb. 5 presidential primary not a slam dunk

By Adam C. Smith
Published March 4, 2007

Don't bank on Florida moving its '08 presidential primary very early just yet. The Buzz is that Altamonte Springs Republican Lee Constantine, chairman of the Senate Ethics and Elections Committee, wants to schedule the primary for mid February, when the presidential nominations are likely to be already set.

The current proposal in the Legislature, aimed at increasing Florida's influence in the nominating process, calls for rescheduling Florida's traditional March primary to Feb. 5 or one week after New Hampshire's tentatively scheduled Jan. 22 primary, whichever is sooner.

"It's just a question of looking at the various options and getting it done right," said Constantine, who was vague about his precise proposal. "I'm looking at other options outside just Feb. 5 or one week after New Hampshire. ... There are many people who think the earlier you do it favors those who have the most money because Florida's such a big state."

State Sen. Jeremy Ring, D-Margate, is confident most senators back his bill for an earlier primary. Nor is there any indication the House leadership is backing off its enthusiasm for a very early primary. As it now stands, the nominations are likely to be locked up Feb. 5 because so many states want to hold early primaries or caucuses.

Aside from more attention on Florida, Ring offers a pragmatic reason for the earliest possible Florida primary: pressure on candidates to embrace a national catastrophic insurance fund. "This will give us the leverage that we need to get something done in Washington on that," he said. "The candidates campaigning in Florida will have to campaign on the need of a national catastrophic fund."

Jesus' testimony

How would Jesus have testified at last week's public hearing on ousted transsexual Largo City Manager Steve Stanton? Pastor Ron Saunders of Largo's Lighthouse Baptist Church insisted at that hearing that Jesus would have called for Stanton's resignation. Largo Mayor Pat Gerard is not so sure.

"I would have loved to hear what Jesus would have said. I think he would have been much more loving and tolerant than some of the ministers that I heard," Gerard, who wanted Stanton to keep his job, said in a Political Connections interview airing today on Bay News 9.

Gerard also jokingly said Largo may have to tape over the "City of Progress" motto on the seal after last week's Stanton decision.

See the Political Connections interview at 11 a.m. today on Bay News 9 or later on Channel 342 (Bay News 9 on Demand).

Obama's buddies

U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton is the new co-chairman of Barack Obama's presidential campaign in Florida.

"I have never been as excited about a candidate for president as I am about Barack Obama," said Wexler. "I am inspired by his campaign and his message of authenticity, integrity and bringing people together. Barack had the foresight to oppose the Iraq war from the beginning, and as president he will bring our troops home. I have spoken with Barack about the dangers facing our ally Israel, and I am convinced there will be no stronger supporter of Israel than President Obama."

Meanwhile, the freshman Illinois senator is scheduled to be cruising through South Florida's fertile fundraising fields today. Hosts at a series of private fundraisers for Obama include Netscape founder Jim Clark, trial lawyer Jeremy Alters, and Miami lawyer Roy Black, whose prominent clients have included Rush Limbaugh.

Calling all voters

Tuesday may offer plenty of heated elections in Tampa, but don't expect plenty of voters. Former City Council member and Tampa mayoral candidate Bob Buckhorn predicts a mere 20 to 25 percent will show up.

"If you can extrapolate that, 2 1/2 people out of 10 are going to pick who the next mayor and City Council are," Buckhorn said in another Political Connections interview airing today at 11 a.m. on Bay News 9. "That I'm afraid is a poor reflection upon the electorate of the city of Tampa, and it's unfortunate because 20 percent get to decide what's good for the remaining 80 percent."

Buckhorn offered his take on the various races, noting that at least four are competitive, and that the City Council District 4 race pitting incumbent John Dingfelder against well-funded challenger Julie Brown may be the ripest for an upset.

Jeb's Speedo

President Bush made note of his brother, the former governor, last week: "Now that he's out of office, I understand Jeb is spending a lot of time on Florida's beaches," the president said. "He says people still recognize him - when he's out there in his Speedo, they come up and say, 'How you doing, Gov. Schwarzenegger?' "

Count Gore out

Since winning his Oscar for An Inconvenient Truth, the Buzz was inevitable: Will the winner of the '00 popular vote jump into the president race?

Not gonna happen, says Al Gore's longtime friend and top fundraiser Mitchell Berger of Fort Lauderdale. Berger, a big John Edwards supporter, has talked to Gore about that repeatedly and says Gore has been perfectly clear he's staying out.

"Could people please understand that Al Gore thinks that the world's climate is collapsing and he is dedicating every ounce of his energy to do something about that," Berger said.

Vulnerable U.S. reps

Don't get too comfortable in Washington, Democrat Tim Mahoney. The nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report pegs the heavily Republican former Mark Foley seat in the 16th Congressional District as one of only two "pure tossup" seats nationwide for '08. Rothenberg sees Katherine Harris' old District 13 seat, narrowly won in a contested election by Republican Vern Buchanan, as another tossup, but one that tilts Republican.

Rating your reps

National Journal every year analyzes a series of votes to rate where members of Congress fall on the ideological scale. C.W. Bill Young, R-Indian Shores, was more conservative in 2006 than 73.2 percent of the U.S. House, Ginny Brown-Waite was more conservative than 75.2 percent, and Adam Putnam was more conservative than 82 percent.

Former U.S. Rep. Mike Bilirakis, R-Palm Harbor, was more conservative than 80 percent, while former Rep. Jim Davis, D-Tampa, was not rated because he missed so many votes running for governor. Florida's most conservative House member was Panhandle Republican Jeff Miller, more conservative than 93.2 percent of his colleagues, and most liberal was South Florida's Robert Wexler, more conservative than 20.2 percent.

Among senators, Republican Mel Martinez was more conservative than 73.2 percent of senators and Democrat Bill Nelson more conservative than 39.7 percent of senators.

Adam C. Smith contributed to this week's Buzz. For much more breaking political news check out blogs.tampabay.com/buzz.

[Last modified March 4, 2007, 00:25:35]