Columns

What seems so sure is that we've seen this before

By JOHN ROMANO
Published March 28, 2007

TAMPA - The end is nearing. Not just in the number of games, but in the amount of hope.

Oh, the Lightning may yet make the playoffs. John Tortorella made a point of guaranteeing it Tuesday night, in apparent hope his players were eavesdropping.

But, understand, it is hard to see how this season ends happily. Or even pleasantly.

The simple truth is, a year later, not much has changed.

Entering the final days of a season, the Lightning is once again in danger of missing the playoffs. And, yet again, the No. 1 goaltender is a mystery.

The only difference is last year the goaltender was changing from game to game. Now, it is from period to period. Soon, the Lightning could make NHL history with goaltender line changes.

This, my friends, is a collapse.

It is not a slump. It is not a fluke.

This is a team in the middle of the playoff chase looking as if it has a chicken bone lodged in its throat.

"There's no explanation. It's not like we have any time to mess with," defenseman Dan Boyle said. "Five games to go, anything less than four (wins) and we're probably going to be out."

Yes, the Lightning played with desperation in the third period. Yes, the boys nearly pulled off a two-goal comeback. Yes, the score could have been tied if a Marty St. Louis shot had not hit the post in the final minutes.

But none of that matters. Not in late March. The point is why didn't the Lightning jump on Florida from the first minute? How could a team coming off a brutal 7-2 loss at home allow the Panthers to even be in position for an upset?

You could blame the goaltender, and Tortorella essentially did by saying his benching of Marc Denis in the third period spoke for itself.

But why was Denis in the net in the first place? It might have been because Johan Holmqvist played poorly in his last start against Florida. But Denis hadn't exactly shined in relief in that game.

Tortorella seems tired of answering questions about his goaltenders, but the problem is partially of his own doing. By not sticking with one guy in the net, he has opened the door to daily speculation and second-guessing.

Tuesday night's second guess?

Why not start Holmqvist, who has a 13-4-1 record and an excellent 2.37 goals-against average at home?

Because, now, Denis is back on the bench. Which means Holmqvist likely starts a road game on Friday. And his record on the road (11-10-1, 3.32) is not nearly as attractive.

The shame is that this season could have been so much more.

If, in October, you were told Vinny Lecavalier would be on the cusp of 50 goals, St. Louis would have more points than he did in his MVP season, and Brad Richards would be one goal from tying a career high, you'd have already started construction on one of those cardboard Stanley Cup replicas.

Instead, the Lightning is a few weeks away from a possible payroll purge.

"You're not giving yourself a chance to win if you're consistently giving up three or four goals a night," captain Tim Taylor said. "We have to tighten it up."

It is hard to imagine it has grown this dire this quickly.

On the first of March, the Lightning beat Washington in a delirious 10-round shootout to move four points ahead of Atlanta on top of the Southeast Division.

The team was hot. The players looked confident. They were the No. 3 seeds in the Eastern Conference, and their postseason future seemed intriguing.

Since that night, Tampa Bay has lost seven of 11 games. Worse yet, it has lost games that should have been safely nestled in the team's hip pocket.

The Lightning has lost twice to Florida, the No. 12 team in the conference. It has lost to Toronto, the No. 11 team. It has lost to Washington, the No. 14 team.

The Lightning has fallen behind Atlanta, and practically off the map.

"We're going to get in. We're going to get in," Tortorella said. "I'd like to go in straight ahead instead of turning left and going around the block."

He may be right. The Lightning is still in control of its destiny. And it is in nearly an identical position to a year ago when a playoff berth was won.

At this point last season, the Lightning was 42-30-5. It is 41-32-4 this morning.

The Lightning was tied for seventh in the conference at the same time last season. It is tied for seventh again today.

But here's the rub:

In 2006, the playoff run lasted only five games.

Do you have any hope this season will be different?

John Romano can be reached at (727) 893-8811.

[Last modified March 28, 2007, 10:56:44]