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The incredible shrinking American role in world

By DAVID IGNATIUS Washington Post Writers Group
Published April 14, 2007

WASHINGTON - As political power ebbs away from the Bush presidency, a number of changes are becoming visible around the world - most of them unwelcome. Simply put, the White House is losing its ability to shape events.

President Bush's relentless focus on Iraq magnifies this problem. His almost daily comments on the war underscore just how much he has ransomed his presidency and the nation's security to the unlikely prospect of success in Iraq. And the monomania about Iraq distracts Bush and his advisers from other big issues that need attention.

What else is there to worry about? "A key question in assessing the risks to the outlook is whether the global economy would be able to 'decouple' from the United States were the latter to slow down more sharply than projected." This is from the latest World Economic Outlook report, prepared by the International Monetary Fund.

Rather than deferring to U.S. economic leadership, in other words, the global financiers are worrying about how to get out of the way if our pyramid of debt-financed consumer spending should topple. The IMF projects U.S. economic growth this year at just 2.2 percent, below the average for advanced economies and less than half the projected growth for the world as a whole.

With the White House in decline, interest groups are gaining more clout to influence policy. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is working mightily to keep the U.S.-China relationship on track. But the administration recognized political reality this week in filing complaints with the World Trade Organization about Chinese piracy of intellectual property, drawing an expression of "deep regret and strong dissatisfaction" from Beijing. The New York Times, citing a China expert, said "Chinese officials appeared to be worried that President Bush was losing his ability to block protectionist moves in Congress."

Even the breakthrough trade and nuclear energy deal with India, arguably the administration's only big foreign-policy success last year, is hostage to the president's declining political support. Congress still hasn't passed the legislation necessary for the India package to go through.

The most dangerous consequences of the Washington power vacuum may be in Iraq itself. The president's pleas for bipartisan support, coming late in the game, seem to be falling on deaf ears. He has lost the Democrats - Sen. Joseph Biden all but declared defeat for the Bush troop surge strategy this week - and even the Republicans seem willing to give Bush's surge only provisional support, through this fall.

As bad as things are in Iraq, they may soon get worse. The focus on Baghdad security has led many analysts to overlook the growing risk of an explosion in the ethnically divided city of Kirkuk - and even of a military clash between Iraqi Kurds and Turkey over control of the city. Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani last weekend threatened that if Ankara tries to protect the Turkmen minority in Kirkuk, "then we will take action for the 30-million Kurds in Turkey." That reckless statement probably had Turkish generals reviewing contingency plans for military intervention.

Here's the paradox: Many of Bush's international policies are sensible because they seek to preserve a measure of American influence in a world that doubts our leadership. But with his presidency in disarray, George Bush is increasingly unable to make these policies work.

[Last modified April 13, 2007, 21:36:51]